干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Quantifying the uncertainty in future groundwater recharge simulations from regional climate models

Arid

DOI	10.1002/hyp.14645
	Quantifying the uncertainty in future groundwater recharge simulations from regional climate models
	Ajjur, Salah Basem; Al-Ghamdi, Sami G.
通讯作者	Ajjur, SB ; Al-Ghamdi, SG
来源期刊	HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES
ISSN	0885-6087
EISSN	1099-1085
出版年	2022
卷号	36 期号:8
英文摘要	This study aims to show how future groundwater recharge (GR) simulations in arid areas respond to uncertainty in climatic parameters-a question, if explored, that bridges a gap in water resources management plans. To this aim, eight regional climate models (RCMs) under two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) projected four climatic parameters [surface air temperature, precipitation, wind speed, and potential evapotranspiration (PET)] over Qatar during the period of 2071-2100. Using topographic and groundwater data, a physically based water balance model was built to simulate future GR under these 16 scenarios. Results show high uncertainty in climatic parameters. Relative to the reference period (19762005), values varied under RCP4.5 (RCP8.5) from +1.8 to +3.4 (+3.8 to +5.6)degrees C for average temperature, -48% to +15% (-60% to +6%) for annual precipitation, -0.23 to +0.1 (-0.27 to +0.04) m/hour for wind speed, and from -5.7 to +12.8 (+4.3 to +17) mm for annual PET. Uncertainty in climatic parameters caused great uncertainty in future GR estimations. During the late 21st century, GR simulations varied from -67% to +64% with an average value of -20% under RCP4.5, and from -81% to +8% with an average value of -36% under RCP8.5. The greatest uncertainty resulted from the driving model, whereas the choice of emission scenario had a secondary impact. Since GR is a critical component of feeding arid aquifers, the study's findings emphasize the importance of both considering the uncertainty associated with climatic parameters and the regional climatic information chosen.
英文关键词	climate change groundwater recharge uncertainty analysis urbanization water-balance model Qatar
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	Green Published, hybrid
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000837620800001
WOS关键词	UNCONFINED AQUIFER ; CHANGE IMPACTS ; SURFACE-WATER ; HYDROLOGY ; BALANCE ; BASIN ; GIS
WOS类目	Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/393053
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ajjur, Salah Basem,Al-Ghamdi, Sami G.. Quantifying the uncertainty in future groundwater recharge simulations from regional climate models[J],2022,36(8).
APA	Ajjur, Salah Basem,&Al-Ghamdi, Sami G..(2022).Quantifying the uncertainty in future groundwater recharge simulations from regional climate models.HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES,36(8).
MLA	Ajjur, Salah Basem,et al."Quantifying the uncertainty in future groundwater recharge simulations from regional climate models".HYDROLOGICAL PROCESSES 36.8(2022).