干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): The effects of temperature extremes on survival in two semi-arid Australian bird communities over three decades, with predictions to 2104

Arid

DOI	10.1111/geb.13591
	The effects of temperature extremes on survival in two semi-arid Australian bird communities over three decades, with predictions to 2104
	Gardner, Janet L.; Clayton, Mark; Allen, Richard; Stein, John; Bonnet, Timothee
通讯作者	Gardner, JL
来源期刊	GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY
ISSN	1466-822X
EISSN	1466-8238
出版年	2022
卷号	31 期号:12 页码:2498-2509
英文摘要	Aim Organisms in arid and semi-arid regions are frequently exposed to climatic extremes and accordingly among the most vulnerable to climate change. Studies of seasonal differences in vital rates, which mediate effects of climate on viability, are rare in arid species, limiting ability to project population trends. We quantified survival patterns for two bird communities as a function of exposure to temperature extremes in winter and summer, then projected survival patterns to 2104. Location Semi-arid eastern Australia. Time period 1986-2016; 1986-2104. Major taxa studied Birds. Methods Using mark-recapture time-dependent Cormack-Jolly-Seber models and data for 37 species from two >30-year ringing programmes, we tested for effects on 6-monthly survival of exposure to temperatures >38 and <0 degrees C. We then predicted future survival for different emission scenarios, testing whether changes in survival associated with warming winters would be sufficient to offset the effects of rising summer temperatures. Results Survival probability declined strongly with increasing exposure to days >38 degrees C and to a lesser extent to days <0 degrees C, with temperature extremes explaining 43 and 13% of temporal variation in survival among years, respectively. Summer survival patterns were similar across avian guilds but only survival of nectarivores declined in winter. Our models predict that gains in winter survival will not offset reductions in summer survival. Annual survival is predicted to decline substantially by the end of the century: from .63 in 1986 to .43 in 2104 under an optimistic emission scenario and to .11 under a pessimistic scenario. Main conclusions We highlight the significance of temperature extremes for species' persistence in arid and semi-arid regions, comprising 70% of Australia's landmass, and 40% globally. Our demography-based results are consistent with physiological-based projections evaluating avian survival in arid and semi-arid regions globally and suggest rising summer temperatures pose a risk to population persistence in these regions.
英文关键词	arid zone Australian birds avian guilds climate change energy and water population projections species persistence survival temperature extremes thermoregulation
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	hybrid
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000859067200001
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE ; FORAGING BEHAVIOR ; BODY CONDITION ; IMPACT ; THERMOREGULATION ; RESPONSES ; INCREASES ; EVOLUTION ; LANDBIRDS ; EVENTS
WOS类目	Ecology ; Geography, Physical
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Physical Geography
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/392975
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gardner, Janet L.,Clayton, Mark,Allen, Richard,et al. The effects of temperature extremes on survival in two semi-arid Australian bird communities over three decades, with predictions to 2104[J],2022,31(12):2498-2509.
APA	Gardner, Janet L.,Clayton, Mark,Allen, Richard,Stein, John,&Bonnet, Timothee.(2022).The effects of temperature extremes on survival in two semi-arid Australian bird communities over three decades, with predictions to 2104.GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY,31(12),2498-2509.
MLA	Gardner, Janet L.,et al."The effects of temperature extremes on survival in two semi-arid Australian bird communities over three decades, with predictions to 2104".GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY 31.12(2022):2498-2509.