干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Distribution Expansion of Dengue Vectors and Climate Change in India

Arid

DOI	10.1029/2021GH000477
	Distribution Expansion of Dengue Vectors and Climate Change in India
	Hussain, Syed Shah Areeb; Dhiman, Ramesh C.
通讯作者	Dhiman, RC
来源期刊	GEOHEALTH
ISSN	2471-1403
出版年	2022
卷号	6 期号:6
英文摘要	India has witnessed a five-fold increase in dengue incidence in the past decade. However, the nation-wide distribution of dengue vectors, and the impacts of climate change are not known. In this study, species distribution modeling was used to predict the baseline and future distribution of Aedine vectors in India on the basis of biologically relevant climatic indicators. Known occurrences of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus were obtained from the Global Biodiversity Information Facility database and previous literature. Bio-climatic variables were used as the potential predictors of vector distribution. After eliminating collinear and low contributing predictors, the baseline and future prevalence of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus was determined, under three Representative Concentration Pathway scenarios (RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5), using the MaxEnt species distribution model. Aedes aegypti was found prevalent in most parts of the southern peninsula, the eastern coastline, north eastern states and the northern plains. In contrast, Aedes albopictus has localized distribution along the eastern and western coastlines, north eastern states and in the lower Himalayas. Under future scenarios of climate change, Aedes aegypti is projected to expand into unsuitable regions of the Thar desert, whereas Aedes albopictus is projected to expand to the upper and trans Himalaya regions of the north. Overall, the results provide a reliable assessment of vectors prevalence in most parts of the country that can be used to guide surveillance efforts, despite minor disagreements with dengue incidence in Rajasthan and the north east, possibly due to behavioral practices and sampling efforts. Plain Language Summary Climatic parameters derived from temperature and humidity affect the development and survival of mosquitoes that spread diseases. In the past decade, India has witnessed an alarming rise in dengue, a viral disease that spreads through the bite of the mosquitoes Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. We used machine learning based modeling algorithm to predict the present and future abundance of these mosquitoes in India, based on biologically relevant climatic factors. The results project expansion of Aedes aegypti in the hot arid regions of the Thar Desert and Aedes albopictus in cold upper Himalayas as a result of future climatic changes. The results provide a useful guide for strengthening efforts for entomological and dengue surveillance.
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	Green Published
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000814052800001
WOS关键词	AEDES-AEGYPTI ; DIPTERA-CULICIDAE ; ALBOPICTUS ; TEMPERATURE ; MOSQUITOS
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Public, Environmental & Occupational Health
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/392934
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hussain, Syed Shah Areeb,Dhiman, Ramesh C.. Distribution Expansion of Dengue Vectors and Climate Change in India[J],2022,6(6).
APA	Hussain, Syed Shah Areeb,&Dhiman, Ramesh C..(2022).Distribution Expansion of Dengue Vectors and Climate Change in India.GEOHEALTH,6(6).
MLA	Hussain, Syed Shah Areeb,et al."Distribution Expansion of Dengue Vectors and Climate Change in India".GEOHEALTH 6.6(2022).