干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Projection of suitability for the typical agro-ecological types in Central Asia under four SSP-RCP scenarios

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.eja.2022.126599
	Projection of suitability for the typical agro-ecological types in Central Asia under four SSP-RCP scenarios
	Yao, Linlin; Zhou, Hongfei; Yan, Yingjie; Su, Yuan
通讯作者	Zhou, HF
来源期刊	EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF AGRONOMY
ISSN	1161-0301
EISSN	1873-7331
出版年	2022
卷号	140
英文摘要	Accurate assessment of integrated agro-ecological suitability (AES) and the impact of climate change on AES remains an ongoing challenge in large arid and semi-arid regions. To address this issue, the large study area was divided into different hydrothermal zones based on the water-thermal product index. Then, the dynamic weights of multiple parameters were constructed by the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) for different hydrothermal zones. A comparative analysis between different agro-ecological types was developed to obtain an integrated AES. Therefore, a modified assessment system was presented based on the hydrothermal zone, dynamic weight, AHP, weighted linear combination (WLC), fuzzy inference system, and comparative analysis. Moreover, cor-rected simulations of climate models projected climate impacts under four scenarios of Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs) and Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). Central Asia (CA) was selected as the concerned study area. Then, the suitability of four typical agro-ecological types (dry farming, irrigated farming, forestry, and grassland farming) in CA was evaluated during the historical reference period (1975-2014) and the future period (2015-2100) under four SSP-RCP scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP460, and SSP585). The results show that the suitability of dry and grassland farming is relatively high in the third-level hydrothermal zone, and irrigated farming along rivers and forestry is relatively high in the fourth-level zone. Additionally, the unsuitable and four agro-ecological types cover about 42.02 %, 18.35 %, 19.13 %, 0.78 %, and 19.72 % of CA under SSP126 in the near term. Temporally, AES increases in the near term and then decreases in the long term. The SSP-RCP scenario analysis suggests that the high radiative forcing scenario (SSP585) benefits grassland and irrigated farming and is predicted to cause dramatic changes in climate and agro-ecological types. The modified system is a valuable tool for assessing AES in most arid and semi-arid regions, and the analysis can provide information for sustainable development.
英文关键词	Agro-ecological Suitability Dynamic Weight Hydrothermal Zone SSP-RCP Scenarios Central Asia
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000868203100001
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACTS ; GIS ; SUSTAINABILITY ; CLASSIFICATION ; DISTRICT ; AHP
WOS类目	Agronomy
WOS研究方向	Agriculture
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/392554
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yao, Linlin,Zhou, Hongfei,Yan, Yingjie,et al. Projection of suitability for the typical agro-ecological types in Central Asia under four SSP-RCP scenarios[J],2022,140.
APA	Yao, Linlin,Zhou, Hongfei,Yan, Yingjie,&Su, Yuan.(2022).Projection of suitability for the typical agro-ecological types in Central Asia under four SSP-RCP scenarios.EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF AGRONOMY,140.
MLA	Yao, Linlin,et al."Projection of suitability for the typical agro-ecological types in Central Asia under four SSP-RCP scenarios".EUROPEAN JOURNAL OF AGRONOMY 140(2022).