干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Forest cover resilience to climate change over India using the MC2 dynamic vegetation model

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s10661-022-10545-3
	Forest cover resilience to climate change over India using the MC2 dynamic vegetation model
	Das, Pulakesh; Behera, Mukunda Dev; Bhaskaran, Prasad K.; Roy, Parth Sarathi
通讯作者	Behera, MD
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT
ISSN	0167-6369
EISSN	1573-2959
出版年	2022
卷号	194 期号:12
英文摘要	It is imperative to understand the climate change impact on the forest ecosystem to develop appropriate mitigation and management strategies. We have employed a process-based dynamic vegetation modeling (MAPSS-CENTURY: MC) approach to project change in vegetation life forms under projected climate conditions that attained 81% overall accuracy. The present and projected climate conditions suggested highly resilient/stable forest covers in wet climate regimes and moderately resilient in dry semi-arid regions. Several forested grids in the seasonally dry tropical forest in the Eastern Ghats and dry Deccan peninsula regions are estimated to be less resilient, which may experience a regime shift toward scrub and grassland. The future prediction demonstrated an upward temperature shift in the Western Himalayas and trans-Himalaya, which may facilitate forest spread at higher elevations. Although the forest cover resilience may increase in future climate conditions, the disturbances in several regions in the Deccan Peninsula and the Eastern Ghats may trigger forest to scrub and grassland transition. The inaccuracy in model simulation in the Western Himalayas could be attributed to coarse resolution grids (0.5 degrees) failing to resolve the narrow climate niches. The spatially explicit model simulation provides opportunities to develop long-term climate change adaptation and conservation strategies.
英文关键词	Vegetation life form Climate projection Net primary productivity Leaf area index Elevational shift
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000869294200013
WOS关键词	VULNERABILITY ; SHIFTS ; IMPACT ; MAPS
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/392486
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Das, Pulakesh,Behera, Mukunda Dev,Bhaskaran, Prasad K.,et al. Forest cover resilience to climate change over India using the MC2 dynamic vegetation model[J],2022,194(12).
APA	Das, Pulakesh,Behera, Mukunda Dev,Bhaskaran, Prasad K.,&Roy, Parth Sarathi.(2022).Forest cover resilience to climate change over India using the MC2 dynamic vegetation model.ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT,194(12).
MLA	Das, Pulakesh,et al."Forest cover resilience to climate change over India using the MC2 dynamic vegetation model".ENVIRONMENTAL MONITORING AND ASSESSMENT 194.12(2022).