干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Biogeographic consequences of shifting climate for the western massasauga (Sistrurus tergeminus)

Arid

DOI	10.1002/ece3.8599
	Biogeographic consequences of shifting climate for the western massasauga (Sistrurus tergeminus)
	Walkup, Danielle K.; Lawing, Anna Michelle; Hibbitts, Toby J.; Ryberg, Wade A.
通讯作者	Walkup, DK
来源期刊	ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION
ISSN	2045-7758
出版年	2022
卷号	12 期号:2
英文摘要	The western massasauga (Sistrurus tergeminus) is a small pit viper with an extensive geographic range, yet observations of this species are relatively rare. They persist in patchy and isolated populations, threatened by habitat destruction and fragmentation, mortality from vehicle collisions, and deliberate extermination. Changing climates may pose an additional stressor on the survival of isolated populations. Here, we evaluate historic, modern, and future geographic projections of suitable climate for S. tergeminus to outline shifts in their potential geographic distribution and inform current and future management. We used maximum entropy modeling to build multiple models of the potential geographic distribution of S. tergeminus. We evaluated the influence of five key decisions made during the modeling process on the resulting geographic projections of the potential distribution, allowing us to identify areas of model robustness and uncertainty. We evaluated models with the area under the receiver operating curve and true skill statistic. We retained 16 models to project both in the past and future multiple general circulation models. At the last glacial maximum, the potential geographic distribution associated with S. tergeminus occurrences had a stronghold in the southern part of its current range and extended further south into Mexico, but by the mid-Holocene, its modeled potential distribution was similar to its present-day potential distribution. Under future model projections, the potential distribution of S. tergeminus moves north, with the strongest northward trends predicted under a climate scenario increase of 8.5 W/m(2). Some southern populations of S. tergeminus have likely already been extirpated and will continue to be threatened by shifting availability of suitable climate, as they are already under threat from desertification of grasslands. Land use and habitat loss at the northern edge of the species range are likely to make it challenging for this species to track suitable climates northward over time.
英文关键词	ecological niche models forecasting hindcasting paleoclimate paleogeography potential geographic distribution Sistrurus tergeminus western massasauga
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	Green Published
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000760366500007
WOS关键词	SPECIES DISTRIBUTION MODELS ; ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELS ; CROTALINUS-CATENATUS RAFINESQUE ; MITOCHONDRIAL-DNA SEQUENCES ; HISTORICAL BIOGEOGRAPHY ; NORTH-AMERICA ; COMPARATIVE PHYLOGEOGRAPHY ; PROPOSED CONSERVATION ; IMPROVE PREDICTION ; SAMPLING BIAS
WOS类目	Ecology ; Evolutionary Biology
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Evolutionary Biology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/392375
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Walkup, Danielle K.,Lawing, Anna Michelle,Hibbitts, Toby J.,et al. Biogeographic consequences of shifting climate for the western massasauga (Sistrurus tergeminus)[J],2022,12(2).
APA	Walkup, Danielle K.,Lawing, Anna Michelle,Hibbitts, Toby J.,&Ryberg, Wade A..(2022).Biogeographic consequences of shifting climate for the western massasauga (Sistrurus tergeminus).ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION,12(2).
MLA	Walkup, Danielle K.,et al."Biogeographic consequences of shifting climate for the western massasauga (Sistrurus tergeminus)".ECOLOGY AND EVOLUTION 12.2(2022).