干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Long-term assessment of land-use and climate change on water scarcity in an arid basin in Iran

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2022.109934
	Long-term assessment of land-use and climate change on water scarcity in an arid basin in Iran
	Rafiei-Sardooi, Elham; Azareh, Ali; Shooshtari, Sharif Joorabian; Parteli, Eric J. R.
通讯作者	Rafiei-Sardooi, E
来源期刊	ECOLOGICAL MODELLING
ISSN	0304-3800
EISSN	1872-7026
出版年	2022
卷号	467
英文摘要	Water scarcity is a serious problem across many nations. In recent years, water scarcity has increased due to land use and climate change, particularly in areas that are arid or semi-arid, like, for instance, Iran. While land-use changes influence hydrological processes at the basin scale, the impacts caused by climate change are reflected by dynamics of temperature, precipitation and evapotranspiration (ET) at the regional to global scale. However, the respective impacts of land-use change and climate change, acting in concert, on water yield, water supply and water consumption, are still poorly understood. The present study aims at shedding further light into these effects by taking as example the Halil River basin in Iran. To this end, the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Service and Tradeoffs (InVEST) modelling tool is applied to simulate water yield, water supply and water consumption in the study area, by adopting a range of scenarios of land-use and climate change until 2040. Specifically, this study applies the HadGEM2-ES Earth System model under RCP 2.6, 4.5 and 8.5 to assess the effects of future climate change on water scarcity, and the Land Change Modeller (LCM) in TerrSet Geospatial Monitoring and Modeling Software to estimate land-use maps in the next two decades. Our results indicate that water yield and water supply in the study area are more strongly influenced by climate change than by land-use change. By contrast, change in land-use provides the more significant impact on water consumption. However, while water scarcity in Halil River Basin is controlled mainly by climate change and precipitation, the scenarios that combine land-use and climate changes yield the most significant impact on water yield and water supply. Our findings provide, thus, insights for improving strategies of sustainable development in arid to semi-arid regions threatened by land-use and climate change driven water scarcity.
英文关键词	Water scarcity Climate change InVEST Land-use change Scenarios
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000790505300006
WOS关键词	ECOSYSTEM SERVICES ; CHANGE MODELER ; RIVER-BASIN ; SENSITIVITY-ANALYSIS ; INVEST MODEL ; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; IMPACTS ; YIELD ; SIMULATION ; CATCHMENT
WOS类目	Ecology
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/392370
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Rafiei-Sardooi, Elham,Azareh, Ali,Shooshtari, Sharif Joorabian,et al. Long-term assessment of land-use and climate change on water scarcity in an arid basin in Iran[J],2022,467.
APA	Rafiei-Sardooi, Elham,Azareh, Ali,Shooshtari, Sharif Joorabian,&Parteli, Eric J. R..(2022).Long-term assessment of land-use and climate change on water scarcity in an arid basin in Iran.ECOLOGICAL MODELLING,467.
MLA	Rafiei-Sardooi, Elham,et al."Long-term assessment of land-use and climate change on water scarcity in an arid basin in Iran".ECOLOGICAL MODELLING 467(2022).