干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Aridity and desertification in the Mediterranean under EURO-CORDEX future climate change scenarios

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s10584-022-03454-4
	Aridity and desertification in the Mediterranean under EURO-CORDEX future climate change scenarios
	Carvalho, D.; Pereira, S. C.; Silva, R.; Rocha, A.
通讯作者	Carvalho, D
来源期刊	CLIMATIC CHANGE
ISSN	0165-0009
EISSN	1573-1480
出版年	2022
卷号	174 期号:3-4
英文摘要	This study investigates future aridity changes in the Mediterranean under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 IPCC future climate scenarios, using nine bias-corrected, high-resolution simulations from the EURO-CORDEX project. Results show that, towards the end of the century (2081-2100 period) and under the RCP8.5 future climate scenario, precipitation and evapotranspiration are projected to strongly decrease, up to 30-40% in southern Iberian Peninsula and northwestern Africa. These changes result in slight reductions in the water balance, although these are residual, non-significant and not robust across models, except at some mountainous areas (Alps, Pyrenees and Cappadocia) where the water availability can decrease up to 40-50%. Oppositely, potential evapotranspiration is expected to strongly increase in the future due to temperature increases and reduced surface water vapour pressure deficit. These changes can reach 50% under RCP8.5 in the Alps, Pyrenees and Atlas mountain ranges. These precipitation and potential evapotranspiration changes induce a strong, significant and robust increase of aridity over the Mediterranean region, particularly at North Africa and Iberian Peninsula. However, the reductions in the AI values (i.e. increased aridity) may not always reflect a change in the aridity categories since AI categories are based on ranges of AI values and not in the AI values per se. These results clearly indicate that the Mediterranean is projected to become in the future more arid, due to the conjugated effects of precipitation decrease and potential evapotranspiration increase. These changes, together with growing intensive farming practices and tourism, may contribute to overexploitation of aquifers, wetland destruction and irreversible natural productivity loss, leading to irreversible water scarcity and desertification in the region.
英文关键词	Climate change Aridity Mediterranean EURO-CORDEX
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000873874900001
WOS关键词	BIAS-CORRECTION ; NORTH-ATLANTIC ; CIRCULATION CHANGES ; HADLEY CIRCULATION ; DROUGHT CHANGES ; 20-1ST CENTURY ; GLOBAL DROUGHT ; SOIL-MOISTURE ; MODEL ; PRECIPITATION
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/392156
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Carvalho, D.,Pereira, S. C.,Silva, R.,et al. Aridity and desertification in the Mediterranean under EURO-CORDEX future climate change scenarios[J],2022,174(3-4).
APA	Carvalho, D.,Pereira, S. C.,Silva, R.,&Rocha, A..(2022).Aridity and desertification in the Mediterranean under EURO-CORDEX future climate change scenarios.CLIMATIC CHANGE,174(3-4).
MLA	Carvalho, D.,et al."Aridity and desertification in the Mediterranean under EURO-CORDEX future climate change scenarios".CLIMATIC CHANGE 174.3-4(2022).