干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Simulating the climate change impacts and evaluating potential adaptation strategies for irrigated corn production in Northern High Plains of Texas

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.crm.2022.100446
	Simulating the climate change impacts and evaluating potential adaptation strategies for irrigated corn production in Northern High Plains of Texas
	Kothari, Kritika; Ale, Srinivasulu; Marek, Gary W.; Munster, Clyde L.; Singh, Vijay P.; Chen, Yong; Marek, Thomas H.; Xue, Qingwu
通讯作者	Ale, S
来源期刊	CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT
ISSN	2212-0963
出版年	2022
卷号	37
英文摘要	Sustaining irrigated corn (Zea mays L.) production under changing climate and reduced irrigation water availability presents a key challenge for producers in the Northern High Plains (NHP) of Texas. We assessed climate change impacts on corn production at Bushland in the NHP region using the CERES-Maize model under 36 future climate scenarios. These scenarios included nine global climate models (GCMs), two representative concentration pathways (PCPs) 4.5 and 8.5, and two future time periods 2050s (2036-2065) and 2080s (2066-2095). Simulated grain corn yield decreased, under all scenarios in the future, by approximately 31 % on average in the 2050s and by approximately 55 % in the 2080s, under RCP 8.5, mainly due to reduced unit grain weight and biomass, and shorter crop cycle. Seasonal irrigation water use was simulated to either increase or decrease in the future depending on the rainfall projection of a GCM. Adaptation strategies considered in this study included using ideotypes with a longer maturity, higher yield potential, and greater heat tolerance than the reference cultivar, and shifting of planting dates. The ideotypes were created by modifying thermal times from emergence to end-of-juvenile phase, thermal time from silking to maturity, maximum kernel number per plant, radiation use efficiency (RUE), and optimum and failure temperature thresholds during relative grain filling. The planting dates considered were 16 April, 1 May, 16 May (reference), 1 June, and 16 June. By increasing the reproductive period by 13 days, grain yield could increase by 40 %, but that could increase seasonal irrigation water requirement by 10 %. Grain corn yield increased by 13 % on average when the maximum number of kernels per plant or RUE were increased by 15 %, with minor changes in seasonal irrigation water requirement. Heat tolerant ideotypes showed yield advantage over the reference cultivar without much change in irrigation. Delayed planting increased grain yield in the future. Overall, grain yield could decline under climate change without adaptation. Ideotypes with greater silking to maturity period, potential number of kernels per plant, RUE, and heat tolerance during grain filling, showed yield benefits in the future.
英文关键词	DSSAT CERES-Maize Heat tolerance Ideotype Planting date Semi-arid region
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000853088500001
WOS关键词	RADIATION-USE EFFICIENCY ; ATMOSPHERIC CARBON-DIOXIDE ; MAIZE YIELD ; GROUNDWATER DEPLETION ; HEAT TOLERANCE ; PLANTING DATE ; DROUGHT ; FUTURE ; BENEFITS ; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Environmental Studies ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/392153
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kothari, Kritika,Ale, Srinivasulu,Marek, Gary W.,et al. Simulating the climate change impacts and evaluating potential adaptation strategies for irrigated corn production in Northern High Plains of Texas[J],2022,37.
APA	Kothari, Kritika.,Ale, Srinivasulu.,Marek, Gary W..,Munster, Clyde L..,Singh, Vijay P..,...&Xue, Qingwu.(2022).Simulating the climate change impacts and evaluating potential adaptation strategies for irrigated corn production in Northern High Plains of Texas.CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT,37.
MLA	Kothari, Kritika,et al."Simulating the climate change impacts and evaluating potential adaptation strategies for irrigated corn production in Northern High Plains of Texas".CLIMATE RISK MANAGEMENT 37(2022).