干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Prediction of the Irrigation Area Carrying Capacity in the Tarim River Basin under Climate Change

Arid

DOI	10.3390/agriculture12050657
	Prediction of the Irrigation Area Carrying Capacity in the Tarim River Basin under Climate Change
	Liu, Qi; Liu, Yi; Niu, Jie; Gui, Dongwei; Hu, Bill X.
通讯作者	Niu, J
来源期刊	AGRICULTURE-BASEL
EISSN	2077-0472
出版年	2022
卷号	12 期号:5
英文摘要	The Tarim River Basin (TRB) is one of the world's largest cotton-producing areas, and its agricultural water use accounts for up to 95% of the total water consumption in the basin. Quantifying the future changes in the irrigation area carrying capacity under global warming is therefore essential in TRB. In this study, we analyzed the variation in the irrigation area in TRB over the last few decades, utilized the nonlinear autoregressive with an exogenous input neural network to simulate the future changes in the available water resources, and predicted the future irrigation area carrying capacity based on the water balance equation. The results showed that the present (1970-2020) irrigation area in TRB exhibited an increasing trend from 491 km(2) in 1970s to 1382 km(2) in 2020, as most of the natural vegetation was transformed into cropland. In the future (2022-2050), the available water resource will show an upward tendency while the irrigation area carrying capacity mainly ranges from 12 x 10(2)-21 x 10(2) km(2) and 17 x 10(2)-30 x 10(2) km(2) under scenarios SSP (shared socioeconomic pathway) 245 and SSP585, respectively. The simulated results will provide useful information for the allocation of water resources and the regional sustainable development of TRB.
英文关键词	arid region snowmelt-driven runoff climate change irrigation area machine learning
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000804914900001
WOS关键词	WATER ALLOCATION ; MODEL ; STRATEGIES ; CATCHMENT ; IMPACTS ; SNOW
WOS类目	Agronomy
WOS研究方向	Agriculture
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/391683
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Liu, Qi,Liu, Yi,Niu, Jie,et al. Prediction of the Irrigation Area Carrying Capacity in the Tarim River Basin under Climate Change[J],2022,12(5).
APA	Liu, Qi,Liu, Yi,Niu, Jie,Gui, Dongwei,&Hu, Bill X..(2022).Prediction of the Irrigation Area Carrying Capacity in the Tarim River Basin under Climate Change.AGRICULTURE-BASEL,12(5).
MLA	Liu, Qi,et al."Prediction of the Irrigation Area Carrying Capacity in the Tarim River Basin under Climate Change".AGRICULTURE-BASEL 12.5(2022).