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	基于有效降水干旱指数的改进研究
其他题名	Study on Improvement of Drought Index Based on Effective Precipitation
	赵一磊; 任福民; 李栋梁; 刘建永
来源期刊	气象
ISSN	1000-0526
出版年	2013
卷号	39 期号:5 页码:600-607
中文摘要	基于加权平均降水量(WAP)这一有效降水指数,从两个方面对其进行改进:确定WAP指数中的两个参数以及去除区域性和季节性差异,从而发展了改进的WAP指数,即IWAP。在此基础上,将IWAP指数与多因素气象综合干旱指数Ci做了对比分析,结果显示:在全国大部地区特别是中东部地区,IWAP指数与Ci指数具有良好的相关性,其中在华中大部、贵州大部、云南南部和新疆南部的部分地区两者的相关系数超过0.7;IWAP指数对区域性气象干旱事件的识别在起止时间、影响范围和干旱中心等方面均与Ci指数十分一致。IWAP指数、Ci指数和单因素气象干旱指数降水距平百分率Pa对比分析显示,对于单站干旱过程的监测,在干旱开始时间上IWAP指数与Ci指数接近,但Pa指数则明显偏晚;对干旱结束时间的判断三个指数有较好的一致性;在干旱过程演变的判别效果上,IWAP指数表现出良好的稳定性,而Ci指数和Pa指数可能由于自身算法中的因素影响容易出现不合理的波动乃至中断现象。IWAP指数的适用也存在一定局限性,年平均降水量小于300 mm的西北地区大部至内蒙古西部这些常年干旱地区和青藏高原大部地区不适宜使用该指数。IWAP指数具有计算方法简洁、物理意义明确的特点。考虑到它基于单一降水因子这一特性,该指数不仅便于业务应用,而且在研究中,特别是在现有气候模式输出要素有限的情况下,对干旱的模拟和预估具有更加明显的优势。
英文摘要	Based on the Weighted Average Precipitation (WAP), an improvement study on drought index was carried out in two aspects. After determining the two parameters of the WAP index and removing regional and seasonal differences, an improved WAP drought index named IWAP index was developed. Then, comparison analysis between IWAP index and Ci index was done. The results show that: IWAP index has a good correlation with Ci index in most of China especially in mid-eastern China with correlation coefficients above 0.7 in most of Central China, most of Guizhou, southern Yunnan and southern Xinjiang. In identifying regional meteorological drought events, IWAP index also shows good consistency with Ci index on beginning time, ending time, impacted area and drought center. Further comparison of IWAP index, Ci index and anomaly percentage Pa index on drought processes for individual station shows that IWAP index is consistent with Ci index on beginning time while Pa index generally shows a delayed beginning time. However, the three indices all show good consistency on ending time. In addition, IWAP index shows a stable ability during a drought process while Ci index and Pa index tend to show unreasonable instability due to their algorithms. IWAP index also has some limitations, unsuitable to be applied in most of the Tibet Plateau and the regions with annual average precipitation less than 300 mm. IWAP index can be calculated in simple way and has clear physical meanings. Considering the nature that the index is only based on precipitation, IWAP index is not only convenient for meteorological operation, but also has obvious potential advantages in drought simulation and prediction in the case of limited output elements from current available climate models.
中文关键词	有效降水 ; 干旱指数 ; 改进研究
英文关键词	effective precipitation drought index improvement study
类型	Article
语种	中文
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
CSCD记录号	CSCD:4832542
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/378784
作者单位	赵一磊, 南京信息工程大学大气科学学院, 灾害天气国家重点实验室, 南京, 江苏 210044, 中国.; 任福民, 南京信息工程大学大气科学学院, 灾害天气国家重点实验室, 南京, 江苏 210044, 中国.; 李栋梁, 南京信息工程大学大气科学学院, 南京, 江苏 210044, 中国.; 刘建永, 空军南苑机场气象台, 北京 100076, 中国.
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	赵一磊,任福民,李栋梁,等. 基于有效降水干旱指数的改进研究[J],2013,39(5):600-607.
APA	赵一磊,任福民,李栋梁,&刘建永.(2013).基于有效降水干旱指数的改进研究.气象,39(5),600-607.
MLA	赵一磊,et al."基于有效降水干旱指数的改进研究".气象 39.5(2013):600-607.