干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 陕西省耕地面积变化趋势及其驱动因子研究

Arid

	陕西省耕地面积变化趋势及其驱动因子研究
其他题名	Study on the Trend and Driving Factors of Cultivated Land Area Change in Shaanxi Province
	王书转; 赵先贵
来源期刊	干旱区研究
ISSN	1001-4675
出版年	2006
卷号	23 期号:1 页码:139-143
中文摘要	以实地调查和统计资料,分析了陕西省1949-2003年55 a间耕地面积变化的总体趋势.运用主成分分析方法定量分析了耕地面积变化的驱动因子,结果表明：社会-经济-科技综合作用、退耕还林等2大类因素是影响耕地面积变化的2个主成分.通过建立多元回归模型,对陕西省2010年和2015年的耕地面积进行了预测.研究结果将为合理利用和保护耕地,为干旱地区农业可持续发展提供科学依据.
英文摘要	In this paper the macro-trend of cultivated land area change in Shaanxi Province during the period from 1949 to 2003 is analyzed based on the field investigated and statistical data. The driving factors affecting the cultivated land area change in the province are quantitatively researched using principal component analysis. The conclusions are as follows：（1） The cultivated land area change in Shaanxi Province has experienced 5 stages since recent 50 years, i.e., the enlargement, sharp reduction, enlargement again, slow reduction and sharp reduction again; （2） After carrying out the principal component analysis, it is found that there are 10 driving factors affecting the cultivated land area change in two aspects： a. The synthetic effect of social, economic, scientific and technological factors including mainly the population, passenger transport, per unit area yield of grains, urbanization level, total power of farming machinery, GDP, tertiary industry value, etc. ; b. The factors of farmlands of de-farming to afforesting; （3） It is predicted that the areas of cultivated lands in Shaanxi Province in 2010 and 2015 will be 2.38 * 10^6 hm^2 and 2.37 * 10^6 hm^2 respectively, these reveal that the cultivated land area in the province will be continuously reduced, but the reducing trend will be slowed down, and the pressure of sustainable development of regional agriculture will be mitigated. The study results can provide the scientific basis for rationally use and effectively protect the cultivated lands and for achieving the sustainable development of regional agriculture in the province.
中文关键词	耕地面积变化 ; 驱动因子 ; 主成分分析 ; 回归分析 ; 陕西
英文关键词	cultivated land area change driving factor principal component analysis regression analysis.
类型	Article
语种	中文
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	Agriculture
CSCD记录号	CSCD:2296708
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/378494
作者单位	王书转, 陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院, 西安, 陕西 710062, 中国.; 赵先贵, 陕西师范大学旅游与环境学院, 西安, 陕西 710062, 中国.
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	王书转,赵先贵. 陕西省耕地面积变化趋势及其驱动因子研究[J],2006,23(1):139-143.
APA	王书转,&赵先贵.(2006).陕西省耕地面积变化趋势及其驱动因子研究.干旱区研究,23(1),139-143.
MLA	王书转,et al."陕西省耕地面积变化趋势及其驱动因子研究".干旱区研究 23.1(2006):139-143.