干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 基于FLUS-Markov模型的多情景景观生态风险评价与预测以南疆克州为例

Arid

	基于FLUS-Markov模型的多情景景观生态风险评价与预测以南疆克州为例
其他题名	FLUS-Markov model-based multiscenario evaluation and prediction of the landscape ecological risk in Kezhou, South Xinjiang
	金梦婷; 徐丽萍; 徐权
来源期刊	干旱区研究
ISSN	1001-4675
出版年	2021
卷号	38 期号:6 页码:1793-1804
中文摘要	以新疆克孜勒苏柯尔克孜自治州(克州)为例,基于20052015年土地利用空间格局变化,利用FLUSMarkov复合模型预测2025年土地利用情况,采用Criteria Importance Though Intercrieria Correlation(CRITIC)权重法构建自然增长和生态保护情景下的景观生态风险指数,并采用自然断点法由低到高划分为5个等级(Risk Ⅰ、Risk Ⅱ、Risk Ⅲ、Risk Ⅳ和Risk Ⅴ),以风险指数质心和标准差椭圆评价不同年份、多情景下景观生态风险时空格局和变化特征,探究影响其演化特征的驱动因素。结果表明:(1)在自然增长情景下,耕地、水域、建设用地面积不断增加,林地、草地、荒漠和裸地面积逐渐减小;生态保护情景下,草地相比于自然增长情景增加了51 km~2。(2)20052025年,克州景观生态风险整体呈现减小的趋势,生态保护情景相比于自然增长情景下的Risk Ⅰ、Risk Ⅱ和Risk Ⅳ面积分别增加34 km~2、1240 km~2和66 km~2,Risk Ⅲ和Risk Ⅴ面积分别减少695 km~2和645 km~2。(3)20052025年,自然增长情景下克州Risk Ⅰ、Risk Ⅱ、Risk Ⅳ和Risk Ⅴ呈扩散分布状态,Risk Ⅲ呈现紧凑收缩状态。(4)影响景观生态风险演化的主要因素是地形气候因子(解释力85%以上),其次人口(解释力59%以上)也是重要的驱动因子,GDP对景观生态风险变化的贡献减小。
英文摘要	In this study, the Kirgiz Autonomous Prefecture of Kizilsu in Xinjiang was set as an example to use an FLUS-Markov composite model based on changes in the land use spatial pattern from 2005 to 2015 for predicting the land use situation in 2025. The criteria importance though intercriteria correlation weight method was applied to construct the landscape ecological risk index under the two scenarios of natural growth and ecological protection. The natural risk index was also determined. The breakpoint method was divided into five levels (from low to high): risks I-V. Risk index centroid and standard deviation ellipse are used to evaluate the spatiotemporal pattern and changes in the characteristics of landscape ecological risk in different years and multiscenarios and to explore the driving factors affecting its evolution characteristics. Results show that (1) the area covered by cultivated land, water area, and construction land is increasing under a natural growth scenario, whereas the area spanning woodland, grassland, desert, and bare land is gradually decreasing. The grassland area under the ecological protection scenario increases by 51 km~2 compared with that under the natural growth scenario. (2) From 2005 to 2025, the overall landscape ecological risk of Kezhou decreased. Compared with the natural growth scenario, the areas under risks I, II, and IV in the ecological protection scenario increased by 34 km~2, 1240 km~2, and 66 km~2, respectively, and the areas under risks III and V decreased by 695 and 645 km~2, respectively. (3) From 2005 to 2025, risks I, II, IV, and V in Kezhou would be in a diffused distribution state, and risk III would be in a compact contraction state. (4) The main factors affecting the evolution of landscape ecological risk are topographic and climatic factors (interpretation over 85%). Another important driving factor is population (interpretation over 59%). The contribution of GDP to the changes in the landscape ecological risk is reduced.
中文关键词	土地利用 ; FLUS-Markov模型 ; 景观生态风险指数 ; 情景模拟 ; 驱动力 ; 新疆
英文关键词	land use FLUS-Markov model landscape ecological risk index scenario simulation driving force Xinjiang
类型	Article
语种	中文
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	Geology
CSCD记录号	CSCD:7095406
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/377682
作者单位	金梦婷, 石河子大学理学院,干旱区景观生态重点实验室, 兵团绿洲城镇与山盆生态系统重点实验室, 石河子, 新疆 832000, 中国.; 徐丽萍, 石河子大学理学院,干旱区景观生态重点实验室, 兵团绿洲城镇与山盆生态系统重点实验室, 石河子, 新疆 832000, 中国.; 徐权, 石河子大学理学院,干旱区景观生态重点实验室, 兵团绿洲城镇与山盆生态系统重点实验室, 石河子, 新疆 832000, 中国.
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	金梦婷,徐丽萍,徐权. 基于FLUS-Markov模型的多情景景观生态风险评价与预测以南疆克州为例[J],2021,38(6):1793-1804.
APA	金梦婷,徐丽萍,&徐权.(2021).基于FLUS-Markov模型的多情景景观生态风险评价与预测以南疆克州为例.干旱区研究,38(6),1793-1804.
MLA	金梦婷,et al."基于FLUS-Markov模型的多情景景观生态风险评价与预测以南疆克州为例".干旱区研究 38.6(2021):1793-1804.