干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 基于多变量时间序列模型的锡林郭勒草原参考作物蒸散量预测

Arid

	基于多变量时间序列模型的锡林郭勒草原参考作物蒸散量预测
其他题名	Prediction of reference crop evapotranspiration in Xilinguole grassland based on multivariate time series model
	冯壮壮; 史海滨; 苗庆丰; 李健男; 孙伟; 代丽萍
来源期刊	干旱区研究
ISSN	1001-4675
出版年	2021
卷号	38 期号:6 页码:1650-1658
中文摘要	为探明各气象因素对锡林郭勒草原的参考作物蒸散量影响及对参考作物蒸散量预测,利用内蒙古锡林郭勒草原的6个国家级地面气象站点获取的气象数据与其计算得到的PM-ET0进行关联度分析,按照关联系数从大小排序分别建立基于多变量时间序列CAR(Controlled Auto-regressive)的CAR-ET0模型。结果表明:(1)各气象因子与PM-ET0关联系数呈现由荒漠草原区-典型草原区-草甸草原区过渡减小的分布,日最低气温、平均气温与PM-ET0关联度最小,平均日照时数与PM-ET0关联度最大,为0.7293。(2)处于草甸草原区、荒漠草原区、通过输入日照与气温两因子建立的CAR-ET0精度较高;典型草原区还需风速为模型第三因子。(3)通过模型预测精度验证,CAR-ET0模型预测精度总体高于HS-ET0与PMT-ET0方法,结合关联度分析可得出对当地参考作物蒸散量有显著影响的气象因子,可为锡林郭勒草原气象监测布设方案、参考作物蒸散量确定与草原生态恢复提供理论依据。
英文摘要	This study was performed to explore the influence of various meteorological factors on reference crop evapotranspiration and its prediction in Xilinguole grassland. The correlation between the meteorological data of six national ground meteorological stations in Xilinguole grassland of Inner Mongolia and the calculated PM-ET0 was analyzed. A multivariate time series controlled autoregressive (CAR) model was used as a basis for establishing a CAR-ET0 model in accordance with the order of correlation coefficient. Results showed that the correlation coefficient between meteorological factors and PM-ET0 decreased from a desert steppe area to a typical steppe area and a meadow steppe area. The correlation of daily minimum temperature, average temperature, and PM-ET0 was the smallest, whereas the correlation between average sunshine hours and PM-ET0 was the largest, which was 0.7293. In meadow and desert steppes, the accuracy of CAR-ET0 increased when sunshine and temperature were used as inputs. Wind speed was also required as the third factor of the model in a typical grassland area. The verification of model prediction accuracy revealed that the prediction accuracy of the CAR-ET0 model was generally higher than that of HS-ET0 and PMT-ET0 models. Combined with correlation analysis, the meteorological factors with a significant impact on local reference crop evapotranspiration could be obtained. Thus, this study could provide a theoretical basis for designing a meteorological monitoring layout, determining reference crop evapotranspiration, and conducting ecological restoration in Xilinguole grassland.
中文关键词	参考作物蒸散量 ; 灰色关联度分析 ; 多变量时间序列模型 ; 锡林郭勒草原
英文关键词	reference crop evapotranspiration grey correlation analysis multivariable time series model Xilingol grassland
类型	Article
语种	中文
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	Agriculture
CSCD记录号	CSCD:7095391
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/377678
作者单位	冯壮壮, 内蒙古农业大学水利与土木建筑工程学院, 呼和浩特, 内蒙古 010018, 中国.; 史海滨, 内蒙古农业大学水利与土木建筑工程学院, 呼和浩特, 内蒙古 010018, 中国.; 苗庆丰, 内蒙古农业大学水利与土木建筑工程学院, 呼和浩特, 内蒙古 010018, 中国.; 李健男, 内蒙古农业大学水利与土木建筑工程学院, 呼和浩特, 内蒙古 010018, 中国.; 孙伟, 内蒙古农业大学水利与土木建筑工程学院, 呼和浩特, 内蒙古 010018, 中国.; 代丽萍, 内蒙古农业大学水利与土木建筑工程学院, 呼和浩特, 内蒙古 010018, 中国.
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	冯壮壮,史海滨,苗庆丰,等. 基于多变量时间序列模型的锡林郭勒草原参考作物蒸散量预测[J],2021,38(6):1650-1658.
APA	冯壮壮,史海滨,苗庆丰,李健男,孙伟,&代丽萍.(2021).基于多变量时间序列模型的锡林郭勒草原参考作物蒸散量预测.干旱区研究,38(6),1650-1658.
MLA	冯壮壮,et al."基于多变量时间序列模型的锡林郭勒草原参考作物蒸散量预测".干旱区研究 38.6(2021):1650-1658.