干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): 巴基斯坦干旱特征及其风险评估

Arid

	巴基斯坦干旱特征及其风险评估
其他题名	Drought characteristics and its risk assessment across Pakistan
	朱淑珍; 黄法融; 李兰海
来源期刊	干旱区地理
ISSN	1000-6060
出版年	2021
卷号	44 期号:4 页码:1058-1069
中文摘要	干旱深刻影响着巴基斯坦的水资源、粮食产量和社会经济格局,分析当地的干旱特征及其风险对其社会发展具有重要意义,但当前鲜有学者从长期视角分析整个巴基斯坦的干旱特征或评估该地区的干旱灾害风险。通过采用1982-2013年第三代归一化植被指数(Global inventory modelling and mapping studies normalized difference vegetation index,GIMMS NDVI3g)数据集构建植被状态指数(Vegetation condition index,VCI),分析了32 a巴基斯坦干旱范围和频率;采用由干旱频率、牲畜、土壤、作物、灌溉面积等资料表征的危险性、脆弱性、暴露度和防灾减灾能力对巴基斯坦干旱风险进行了评估。结果表明:(1)研究时段内,各月多年平均干旱范围存在差异,1月和9-12月干旱范围较大(面积比例大于40%);5-8月干旱范围较小(面积比例小于30%);5-6月受升温和降水减少影响,干旱面积有上升趋势。(2)研究区5-8月干旱频率较低,西部山区林地、草地9月干旱频率较高,东部平原1月和9-12月干旱频率较高。(3)巴基斯坦干旱风险空间格局主要由干旱频率、作物产量、大牲畜比例、土壤持水能力决定,其中干旱频率对区域干旱风险的影响最大。在牲畜比例和土壤持水性的分别作用下,巴基斯坦北部山区向平原过渡的地带和东南部自然植被覆盖地区干旱风险较高;受灌溉影响,地形平坦的河谷地区干旱风险较低;北部山区自然植被覆盖度高,干旱风险也较低。研究结果有益于巴基斯坦灾害风险管理。
英文摘要	Pakistan is in South Asia (60°-80°N,23°-37°E) with a total area of 88*10~4 km~2.The southeastern part of Pakistan is mountainous and hilly with a complex topography and different climate types.In summer,this area is controlled by subtropical high pressure,which results in hot and dry weather with a small amount of precipitation.The average annual rainfall is less than 250 mm,and a quarter of the area receives less than 120 mm.Because of the high summer temperatures,Pakistan has been greatly affected by long-term drought,which has severely restricted its social and economic development.In this study,we used the Global Inventory Modeling and Mapping Studies Normalized Difference Vegetation Index 3rd Generation (GIMMS NDVI3g) dataset from 1982 to 2013 to construct the vegetation condition index (VCI).We then used the VCI to analyze the range and frequency of drought in Pakistan for the past 32 years.The drought frequency was used to characterize the risk of drought based on sources from the Pakistan Statistics Bureau and reports in the literature.Information on livestock,soil,crops,and irrigation were used to evaluate the drought vulnerability,exposure,and disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities of Pakistan.Additionally,ERA-Interim data that had been verified by 10 meteorological stations in Pakistan were used for temperature and precipitation reanalysis.The influencing factors of the drought range were determined using partial correlation coefficients,and the partial least squares method was used to identify the dominant influencing factors for the spatial patterns of regional drought risk.The following results were obtained.(1) During the study period,the multiyear average drought range differed for each month.The drought range was larger from January to September than from September to December (area ratio was greater than 40%).The drought range was smaller from May to August (area ratio was less than 30%).The increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation from May to June caused the arid area to increase.(2) In the study area,the drought frequency was low from May to August.The frequency was higher in September for the woodlands and grasslands of the western mountainous areas.The frequency was higher in January and September than in December for the eastern plains.(3) The spatial pattern of drought risk was mainly determined by the drought frequency,crop yield,proportion of large livestock,and water storage capacity of the soil.Among these,the drought frequency had the highest impact on the regional drought risk.The livestock ratio and the water storage capacity of the soil indicated a higher drought risk in the transition zone from mountains to plains in the northern area and the southeastern area covered by natural vegetation.Irrigation reduced the drought risk in the valley area with flat terrain.Additionally,the natural vegetation in the northern mountainous area reduced the drought risk as well.In this study,we analyzed the long-term drought characteristics in Pakistan and evaluated the drought risk due to natural and human factors.This research can provide useful information for drought and disaster risk management in Pakistan.
中文关键词	干旱 ; 风险评估 ; 归一化植被指数(NDVI) ; 植被状态指数(VCI) ; 巴基斯坦
英文关键词	drought risk assessment normalized difference vegetation index(NDVI) vegetation condition index(VCI) Pakistan
类型	Article
语种	中文
收录类别	CSCD
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
CSCD记录号	CSCD:7034582
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/377625
作者单位	朱淑珍, 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所;;中国科学院伊犁河流域生态系统研究站;;中国科学院大学, 荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室;;;;, 乌鲁木齐;;新源;;, 新疆;;新疆;;北京 830011;;835800;;100049, 中国.; 黄法融, 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所;;中国科学院伊犁河流域生态系统研究站;;新疆干旱区水循环与水利用重点实验室;;中国科学院中亚生态与环境研究中心, 荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室;;;;新疆干旱区水循环与水利用重点实验室;;, 乌鲁木齐;;新源;;乌鲁木齐;;乌鲁木齐, 新疆;;新疆;;新疆;;新疆 830011;;835800;;830011;;830011, 中国.; 李兰海, 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所;;中国科学院伊犁河流域生态系统研究站;;中国科学院大学;;新疆干旱区水循环与水利用重点实验室;;中国科学院中亚生态与环境研究中心, 荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室;;;;;;新疆干旱区水循环与水利用重点实验室;;, 乌鲁木齐;;新源;;;;乌鲁木齐;;乌鲁木齐, 新疆;;新疆;;北京;;新疆;;新疆 830011;;835800;;100049;;830011;;830011, 中国.
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	朱淑珍,黄法融,李兰海. 巴基斯坦干旱特征及其风险评估[J],2021,44(4):1058-1069.
APA	朱淑珍,黄法融,&李兰海.(2021).巴基斯坦干旱特征及其风险评估.干旱区地理,44(4),1058-1069.
MLA	朱淑珍,et al."巴基斯坦干旱特征及其风险评估".干旱区地理 44.4(2021):1058-1069.