Arid
DOI10.1002/asl.1085
Evaluation of sensitive physical parameter combinations for determining the uncertainty of fire simulations and predictions in China
Sun, Guodong
Corresponding AuthorSun, GD (corresponding author),40 Huayanli,Beichen West St, Beijing, Peoples R China. ; Sun, GD (corresponding author),POB 9804, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China.
JournalATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS
ISSN1530-261X
Year Published2022-03
Abstract in EnglishFires are fundamental and natural phenomena that affect terrestrial ecosystems and the global climate change. However, uncertainties in fire modeling still exist. It is important to improve the ability to simulate fires by tuning model parameters. In this study, a sensitivity analysis (SA) approach based on the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation related to parameters (CNOP-P) is employed to find the most sensitive parameter subset. First, the maximum uncertainty in modeling fire is estimated, and it is found that the degrees of uncertainty in modeling fire are different in different regions of China. The extents of the uncertainties in modeling fire in northeastern China and northern China with arid and semiarid climate conditions are greatest, and the magnitude of the uncertainty in southern China is the smallest. The uncertainty in modeling fires in northern China with a semihumid climate condition is between the above values. Second, we find that the most sensitive parameter combination with the number of elements determined by the SA method based on the CNOP-P approach are different from the top five parameters combination via a sensitivity test using a traditional method (such as the one-at-a-time [OAT] method). The most sensitive parameter combination includes not only the parameters in the fire module (e.g., fair) but also the parameters that could cause variations in biomass and soil moisture. The prediction skill of fire by reducing the errors of the sensitive parameter combination using the SA method based on the CNOP-P method are higher than those using the OAT method. The above results suggest that not only the parameters in the fire module but also the parameters of other physical processes (e.g., biomass and soil moisture) should be corrected and calibrated to improve simulation and prediction of fire.
Keyword in EnglishCNOP-P fire modeling sensitivity of parameter combinations uncertainty and predictability
SubtypeArticle ; Early Access
Language英语
OA Typegold
Indexed BySCI-E
WOS IDWOS:000762370800001
WOS KeywordWILDLAND FIRE ; VEGETATION ; DYNAMICS ; MODEL ; FORESTS
WOS SubjectGeochemistry & Geophysics ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS Research AreaGeochemistry & Geophysics ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
Document Type期刊论文
Identifierhttp://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/377386
Affiliation[Sun, Guodong] Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Numer Modeling Atmospher Sci & Geop, Inst Atmospher Phys, Beijing, Peoples R China; [Sun, Guodong] Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
Recommended Citation
GB/T 7714
Sun, Guodong. Evaluation of sensitive physical parameter combinations for determining the uncertainty of fire simulations and predictions in China[J],2022.
APA Sun, Guodong.(2022).Evaluation of sensitive physical parameter combinations for determining the uncertainty of fire simulations and predictions in China.ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS.
MLA Sun, Guodong."Evaluation of sensitive physical parameter combinations for determining the uncertainty of fire simulations and predictions in China".ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS (2022).
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