干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Evaluation of sensitive physical parameter combinations for determining the uncertainty of fire simulations and predictions in China

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DOI	10.1002/asl.1085
	Evaluation of sensitive physical parameter combinations for determining the uncertainty of fire simulations and predictions in China
	Sun, Guodong
通讯作者	Sun, GD (corresponding author)，40 Huayanli,Beichen West St, Beijing, Peoples R China. ; Sun, GD (corresponding author)，POB 9804, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China.
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS
ISSN	1530-261X
出版年	2022-03
英文摘要	Fires are fundamental and natural phenomena that affect terrestrial ecosystems and the global climate change. However, uncertainties in fire modeling still exist. It is important to improve the ability to simulate fires by tuning model parameters. In this study, a sensitivity analysis (SA) approach based on the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation related to parameters (CNOP-P) is employed to find the most sensitive parameter subset. First, the maximum uncertainty in modeling fire is estimated, and it is found that the degrees of uncertainty in modeling fire are different in different regions of China. The extents of the uncertainties in modeling fire in northeastern China and northern China with arid and semiarid climate conditions are greatest, and the magnitude of the uncertainty in southern China is the smallest. The uncertainty in modeling fires in northern China with a semihumid climate condition is between the above values. Second, we find that the most sensitive parameter combination with the number of elements determined by the SA method based on the CNOP-P approach are different from the top five parameters combination via a sensitivity test using a traditional method (such as the one-at-a-time [OAT] method). The most sensitive parameter combination includes not only the parameters in the fire module (e.g., fair) but also the parameters that could cause variations in biomass and soil moisture. The prediction skill of fire by reducing the errors of the sensitive parameter combination using the SA method based on the CNOP-P method are higher than those using the OAT method. The above results suggest that not only the parameters in the fire module but also the parameters of other physical processes (e.g., biomass and soil moisture) should be corrected and calibrated to improve simulation and prediction of fire.
英文关键词	CNOP-P fire modeling sensitivity of parameter combinations uncertainty and predictability
类型	Article ; Early Access
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000762370800001
WOS关键词	WILDLAND FIRE ; VEGETATION ; DYNAMICS ; MODEL ; FORESTS
WOS类目	Geochemistry & Geophysics ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Geochemistry & Geophysics ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/377386
作者单位	[Sun, Guodong] Chinese Acad Sci, State Key Lab Numer Modeling Atmospher Sci & Geop, Inst Atmospher Phys, Beijing, Peoples R China; [Sun, Guodong] Univ Chinese Acad Sci, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Sun, Guodong. Evaluation of sensitive physical parameter combinations for determining the uncertainty of fire simulations and predictions in China[J],2022.
APA	Sun, Guodong.(2022).Evaluation of sensitive physical parameter combinations for determining the uncertainty of fire simulations and predictions in China.ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS.
MLA	Sun, Guodong."Evaluation of sensitive physical parameter combinations for determining the uncertainty of fire simulations and predictions in China".ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE LETTERS (2022).

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