干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Climate change and the projection of future temperature and precipitation in southern Iraq using a LARS-WG model

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s40808-022-01358-x
	Climate change and the projection of future temperature and precipitation in southern Iraq using a LARS-WG model
	Mohammed, Zaid M.; Hassan, Waqed H.
通讯作者	Hassan, WH (corresponding author)，Univ Kerbala, Civil Engn Dept, Kerbala, Iraq.
来源期刊	MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS AND ENVIRONMENT
ISSN	2363-6203
EISSN	2363-6211
出版年	2022-02
英文摘要	The Middle East region, where Iraq is located, is characterized by its arid and semi-arid climate and which is anticipated to be more sensitive to the potential effect of climate change and global warming. LARS-WG6.0, a weather generator model, was utilized in this research to project future changes in precipitation and temperature. Five global climate models (GCMs), CSIRO-Mk3.6.0, HadGEM2-ES, CanESM2, MIROC5 and NorESM1-M, were used to predict future change in climate based on two emission scenarios, RCP8.5 and RCP4.5, over three selected periods of time: 2021-2040, 2051-2070 and 2081-2100. Three local meteorological stations in southern Iraq representing the study area, were employed for calibration and validation of the model, by adopting the historical data of the period 1980-2010. The results of the generated predictions show that there will be an increase in annual minimum and maximum temperatures, by this century's end, by 5.67-5.91 degrees C under RCP8.5 and 1.41-1.50 degrees C under RCP4.5 across all study stations. The results also show that there are different decreases trends predicted for precipitation across all five GCMs models. This indicates the high uncertainty around the prediction of future precipitation if using only one model. Temperature and precipitation changes will have a direct impact on the availability of water resources in southern Iraq, especially in the wetlands which will suffer from water scarcity, desertification and other environmental challenges.
英文关键词	Global warming IPCC GCM Statistical downscaling Wetlands
类型	Article ; Early Access
语种	英语
收录类别	ESCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000754993400001
WOS关键词	WATER-RESOURCES ; IMPACT ; CMIP5
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/377368
作者单位	[Mohammed, Zaid M.; Hassan, Waqed H.] Univ Kerbala, Civil Engn Dept, Kerbala, Iraq
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mohammed, Zaid M.,Hassan, Waqed H.. Climate change and the projection of future temperature and precipitation in southern Iraq using a LARS-WG model[J],2022.
APA	Mohammed, Zaid M.,&Hassan, Waqed H..(2022).Climate change and the projection of future temperature and precipitation in southern Iraq using a LARS-WG model.MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS AND ENVIRONMENT.
MLA	Mohammed, Zaid M.,et al."Climate change and the projection of future temperature and precipitation in southern Iraq using a LARS-WG model".MODELING EARTH SYSTEMS AND ENVIRONMENT (2022).