干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Historical changes and projected trends of extreme climate events in Xinjiang, China

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s00382-021-06067-2
	Historical changes and projected trends of extreme climate events in Xinjiang, China
	Guan, Jingyun; Yao, Junqiang; Li, Moyan; Li, Dong; Zheng, Jianghua
通讯作者	Zheng, JH (corresponding author)，Xinjiang Univ, Coll Resources & Environm Sci, Inst Arid Ecol & Environm, Key Lab Oasis Ecol, Urumqi 830046, Peoples R China.
来源期刊	CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN	0930-7575
EISSN	1432-0894
出版年	2022-01
英文摘要	Extreme climate events can cause large risks to ecosystems and human society in a short period. Investigating the changing trends of such events is essential for regional climate risk management. However, there is limited information on the regional assessment of the history and future trends of extreme climate events in Xinjiang, China. This study investigated the historical changes and projected trends of extreme climate events in Xinjiang based on observational data and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) model simulations. The results showed that the bias correction effectively reduced the bias of the CMIP6 model to the extreme climate indices simulation. During the period 1961-2014, the extreme indices representing warmth showed robust growth, while the extreme indices representing cold showed a robust decline. The intensity and frequency indices of extreme precipitation continued to increase, while consecutive dry days (CDDs) shortened and consecutive wet days (CWDs) lengthened. The changing trend of the extreme temperature indices had strong spatial consistency, while the changing trend of the extreme precipitation indices had obvious spatial heterogeneity. Based on the CMIP6 model simulations, the extreme climate indices in the twenty-first century were projected to continue the changing trend of the historical period (1961-2014). Compared with north Xinjiang (NXJ) and south Xinjiang (SXJ), the cold spell duration index (CSDI), cold nights (TN10p), cold days (TX10p), and extreme precipitation events in the Tianshan Mountains (TSM) were projected to experience stronger changes in the twenty-first century. The response of extreme temperature and extreme precipitation indices to global warming was approximately linear. Compared with SSP585, most extreme climate indices under the SSP245 scenario changed slightly in response to global warming. The superposition of the increase (decrease) in extreme warm (cold) events and the increase in extreme precipitation events will exacerbate the threat of extreme climate events to the agricultural and ecological security of the Xinjiang oasis, especially in the TSM. Given the limited water vapor sources and precipitation and the high rate of evapotranspiration, it is projected that the current situation of water shortages in Xinjiang will not be fundamentally changed.
英文关键词	Extreme temperature Extreme precipitation Observations Future projections Xinjiang
类型	Article ; Early Access
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000739773100002
WOS关键词	PRECIPITATION EXTREMES ; TEMPERATURE EXTREMES ; ARID REGION ; ATMOSPHERIC CIRCULATION ; CENTRAL-ASIA ; TIEN-SHAN ; IMPACTS ; ENSEMBLE ; PATTERNS ; MAXIMUM
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/377166
作者单位	[Guan, Jingyun; Li, Moyan; Zheng, Jianghua] Xinjiang Univ, Coll Resources & Environm Sci, Inst Arid Ecol & Environm, Key Lab Oasis Ecol, Urumqi 830046, Peoples R China; [Guan, Jingyun; Li, Dong] Xinjiang Univ Finance & Econ, Coll Tourism, Urumqi 830012, Peoples R China; [Yao, Junqiang] China Meteorol Adm, Inst Desert Meteorol, Desert Meteorol Field Sci Expt Bases Taklimakan D, Urumqi 830002, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Guan, Jingyun,Yao, Junqiang,Li, Moyan,et al. Historical changes and projected trends of extreme climate events in Xinjiang, China[J],2022.
APA	Guan, Jingyun,Yao, Junqiang,Li, Moyan,Li, Dong,&Zheng, Jianghua.(2022).Historical changes and projected trends of extreme climate events in Xinjiang, China.CLIMATE DYNAMICS.
MLA	Guan, Jingyun,et al."Historical changes and projected trends of extreme climate events in Xinjiang, China".CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2022).