干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Will the arid and semi-arid regions of Northwest China become warmer and wetter based on CMIP6 models?

Arid

DOI	10.2166/nh.2021.069
	Will the arid and semi-arid regions of Northwest China become warmer and wetter based on CMIP6 models?
	Yang, Liu; Tian, Jiaxi; Fu, Yuanhai; Zhu, Bin; He, Xu; Gao, Mingkun; Odamtten, Michael Tetteh; Kong, Rui; Zhang, Zengxin
通讯作者	Zhang, ZX (corresponding author)，Nanjing Forestry Univ, Coinnovat Ctr Sustainable Forestry Southern China, Jiangsu Prov Key Lab Soil & Water Conservat & Eco, 159 Longpan Rd, Nanjing 210037, Peoples R China. ; Zhang, ZX (corresponding author)，Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, Urumqi 830011, Xinjiang, Peoples R China.
来源期刊	HYDROLOGY RESEARCH
ISSN	1998-9563
EISSN	2224-7955
出版年	2021-12
英文摘要	Whether there is a transition underway, from a warm-dry climate to a warm-wet climate in Northwest China remains a controversial and scientifically significant issue. Will this trend continue in the future? Another hot issue is whether the climate in Northwest China will continue to be warm and humid over the next few decades. In this paper, eight CMIP6 models were employed to investigate temperature and precipitation changes under five principal Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (from 2015 to 2099) to project the future warming and humidification in Northwest China using the SPEI (standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index) method. The results revealed that (1) the simulated temperature and precipitation of eight CMIP6 models were consistent with that of observed data during 1961-2014, which showed an increase of approximately 28.2 mm, while simulated data revealed an increase of approximately 9.4 mm. The annual precipitation gradually decreased from Eastern Inner Mongolia and the Southern Northwest Mongolia region (>700 mm) to the Central Northwest Mongolia region (<100 mm) from 1961 to 2014; (2) the MME significantly overestimated the temperature and slightly underestimated the precipitation in Northwest Mongolia. The temperature difference between the simulated and observed data was approximately 0.4 degrees C. The observed data showed an increase of approximately 0.9 degrees C from 1961 to 2014, whereas the simulated data revealed an increase of approximately 0.7 degrees C; (3) in the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the percentage of precipitation anomalies at 1.5, 2, 3, and 4 degrees C were 166.64, 190.58, 226.44, and 274.56%, respectively; thus, alleviating the drought situation while facilitating the warm-dry to warm-wet climate transition; (4) the water balance between rising temperatures and increased evapotranspiration resulting from increased precipitation suggested that not all sites will be wet in the future. There was still a drying trend in some areas, where drought was more severe under the high emissions scenario than the low emissions scenario.
英文关键词	climate transition CMIP6 Northwest China SPEI SSPs
类型	Article ; Early Access
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000746570500001
WOS关键词	PRECIPITATION
WOS类目	Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/377052
作者单位	[Yang, Liu; Tian, Jiaxi; Zhu, Bin; He, Xu; Gao, Mingkun; Odamtten, Michael Tetteh; Zhang, Zengxin] Nanjing Forestry Univ, Coinnovat Ctr Sustainable Forestry Southern China, Jiangsu Prov Key Lab Soil & Water Conservat & Eco, 159 Longpan Rd, Nanjing 210037, Peoples R China; [Fu, Yuanhai] Chinese Acad Sci, Climate Change Res Ctr, Beijing 100029, Peoples R China; [Kong, Rui] Hohai Univ, State Key Lab Hydrol Water Resources & Hydraul En, Nanjing 210098, Peoples R China; [Zhang, Zengxin] Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, Urumqi 830011, Xinjiang, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yang, Liu,Tian, Jiaxi,Fu, Yuanhai,et al. Will the arid and semi-arid regions of Northwest China become warmer and wetter based on CMIP6 models?[J],2021.
APA	Yang, Liu.,Tian, Jiaxi.,Fu, Yuanhai.,Zhu, Bin.,He, Xu.,...&Zhang, Zengxin.(2021).Will the arid and semi-arid regions of Northwest China become warmer and wetter based on CMIP6 models?.HYDROLOGY RESEARCH.
MLA	Yang, Liu,et al."Will the arid and semi-arid regions of Northwest China become warmer and wetter based on CMIP6 models?".HYDROLOGY RESEARCH (2021).