干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrological Regime of the Yarkant River Basin, China: An Assessment Using Three SSP Scenarios of CMIP6 GCMs

Arid

DOI	10.3390/rs14010115
	Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrological Regime of the Yarkant River Basin, China: An Assessment Using Three SSP Scenarios of CMIP6 GCMs
	Xiang, Yanyun; Wang, Yi; Chen, Yaning; Zhang, Qifei
通讯作者	Wang, Y (corresponding author)，North China Elect Power Univ, Sch Water Resources & Hydropower Engn, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China.
来源期刊	REMOTE SENSING
EISSN	2072-4292
出版年	2022
卷号	14 期号:1
英文摘要	Quantification of the impacts of climate change on streamflow and other hydrological parameters is of high importance and remains a challenge in arid areas. This study applied a modified distributed hydrological model (HEC-HMS) to the Yarkant River basin, China to assess hydrological changes under future climate change scenarios. Climate change was assessed based on six CMIP6 general circulation models (GCMs), three shared socio-economic pathways (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370), and several bias correction methods, whereas hydrological regime changes were assessed over two timeframes, referred to as the near future (2021-2049) and the far future (2071-2099). Results demonstrate that the DM (distribution mapping) and LOCI (local intensity scaling) bias correction methods most closely fit the projections of temperature and precipitation, respectively. The climate projections predicted a rise in temperature of 1.72-1.79 degrees C under the three SSP scenarios for the near future, and 3.76-6.22 degrees C under the three SSPs for the far future. Precipitation increased by 10.79-12% in the near future, and by 14.82-29.07% during the far future. It is very likely that streamflow will increase during both the near future (10.62-19.2%) and far future (36.69-70.4%) under all three scenarios. The increase in direct flow will be greater than baseflow. Summer and winter streamflow will increase the most, while the increase in streamflow was projected to reach a maximum during June and July over the near future. Over the far future, runoff reached a peak in May and June. The timing of peak streamflow will change from August to July in comparison to historical records. Both high- and low-flow magnitudes during March, April, and May (MAM) as well as June, July, and August (JJA) will increase by varying degrees, whereas the frequency of low flows will decrease during both MAM and JJA. High flow frequency in JJA was projected to decrease. Overall, our results reveal that the hydrological regime of the Yarkant River is likely to change and will be characterized by larger seasonal uncertainty and more frequent extreme events due to significant warming over the two periods. These changes should be seriously considered during policy development.
英文关键词	climate change CMIP6 global climate models hydrology modeling shared socioeconomic pathways extreme flow
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000741408000001
WOS关键词	NORTHWEST CHINA ; BIAS CORRECTION ; ARID REGION ; SNOW COVER ; HEC-HMS ; RUNOFF ; MODEL ; PRECIPITATION ; TEMPERATURE ; DROUGHT
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Remote Sensing ; Imaging Science & Photographic Technology
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Remote Sensing ; Imaging Science & Photographic Technology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/376813
作者单位	[Xiang, Yanyun] Shanxi Univ Finance & Econ, Sch Publ Adm, Taiyuan 030006, Peoples R China; [Xiang, Yanyun; Chen, Yaning] Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, State Key Lab Desert & Oasis Ecol, Urumqi 830011, Peoples R China; [Wang, Yi] North China Elect Power Univ, Sch Water Resources & Hydropower Engn, Beijing 102206, Peoples R China; [Zhang, Qifei] Shanxi Normal Univ, Sch Geog Sci, Taiyuan 030000, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Xiang, Yanyun,Wang, Yi,Chen, Yaning,et al. Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrological Regime of the Yarkant River Basin, China: An Assessment Using Three SSP Scenarios of CMIP6 GCMs[J],2022,14(1).
APA	Xiang, Yanyun,Wang, Yi,Chen, Yaning,&Zhang, Qifei.(2022).Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrological Regime of the Yarkant River Basin, China: An Assessment Using Three SSP Scenarios of CMIP6 GCMs.REMOTE SENSING,14(1).
MLA	Xiang, Yanyun,et al."Impact of Climate Change on the Hydrological Regime of the Yarkant River Basin, China: An Assessment Using Three SSP Scenarios of CMIP6 GCMs".REMOTE SENSING 14.1(2022).