干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Spatiotemporal Evolution Analysis and Future Scenario Prediction of Rocky Desertification in a Subtropical Karst Region

Arid

DOI	10.3390/rs14020292
	Spatiotemporal Evolution Analysis and Future Scenario Prediction of Rocky Desertification in a Subtropical Karst Region
	Qian, Chunhua; Qiang, Hequn; Qin, Changyou; Wang, Zi; Li, Mingyang
通讯作者	Li, MY (corresponding author)，Nanjing Forestry Univ, Coll Forestry, Nanjing 210037, Peoples R China.
来源期刊	REMOTE SENSING
EISSN	2072-4292
出版年	2022
卷号	14 期号:2
英文摘要	Landscape change is a dynamic feature of landscape structure and function over time which is usually affected by natural and human factors. The evolution of rocky desertification is a typical landscape change that directly affects ecological environment governance and sustainable development. Guizhou is one of the most typical subtropical karst landform areas in the world. Its special karst rocky desertification phenomenon is an important factor affecting the ecological environment and limiting sustainable development. In this paper, remote sensing imagery and machine learning methods are utilized to model and analyze the spatiotemporal variation of rocky desertification in Guizhou. Based on an improved CA-Markov model, rocky desertification scenarios in the next 30 years are predicted, providing data support for exploration of the evolution rule of rocky desertification in subtropical karst areas and for effective management. The specific results are as follows: (1) Based on the dynamic degree, transfer matrix, evolution intensity, and speed, the temporal and spatial evolution of rocky desertification in Guizhou from 2001 to 2020 was analyzed. It was found that the proportion of no rocky desertification (NRD) areas increased from 48.86% to 63.53% over this period. Potential rocky desertification (PRD), light rocky desertification (LRD), middle rocky desertification (MRD), and severe rocky desertification (SRD) continued to improve, with the improvement showing an accelerating trend after 2010. (2) An improved CA-Markov model was used to predict the future rocky desertification scenario; compared to the traditional CA-Markov model, the Lee-Sallee index increased from 0.681 to 0.723, and figure of merit (FOM) increased from 0.459 to 0.530. The conclusions of this paper are as follows: (1) From 2001 to 2020, the evolution speed of PRD was the fastest, while that of SRD was the slowest. Rocky desertification control should not only focus on areas with serious rocky desertification, but also prevent transformation from NRD to PRD. (2) Rocky desertification will continue to improve over the next 30 years. Possible deterioration areas are concentrated in high-altitude areas, such as the south of Bijie and the east of Liupanshui.
英文关键词	landscape change spatiotemporal evolution of rocky desertification improved CA-Markov model future scenario prediction
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000747491600001
WOS关键词	SPATIAL-TEMPORAL EVOLUTION ; GUIZHOU PROVINCE ; NORTHWEST GUANGXI ; SOUTHWEST CHINA ; AREAS ; COUNTY ; MODEL ; LAND ; CLASSIFICATION ; SIMULATION
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Remote Sensing ; Imaging Science & Photographic Technology
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Remote Sensing ; Imaging Science & Photographic Technology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/376779
作者单位	[Qian, Chunhua; Wang, Zi; Li, Mingyang] Nanjing Forestry Univ, Coll Forestry, Nanjing 210037, Peoples R China; [Qian, Chunhua; Qiang, Hequn; Qin, Changyou] Suzhou Polytech Inst Agr, Coll Smart Agr, Suzhou 215008, Peoples R China; [Qiang, Hequn] Soochow Univ, Coll Comp Sci & Technol, Suzhou 215301, Peoples R China; [Wang, Zi] China Vanke Co Ltd, Shenzhen 518000, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Qian, Chunhua,Qiang, Hequn,Qin, Changyou,et al. Spatiotemporal Evolution Analysis and Future Scenario Prediction of Rocky Desertification in a Subtropical Karst Region[J],2022,14(2).
APA	Qian, Chunhua,Qiang, Hequn,Qin, Changyou,Wang, Zi,&Li, Mingyang.(2022).Spatiotemporal Evolution Analysis and Future Scenario Prediction of Rocky Desertification in a Subtropical Karst Region.REMOTE SENSING,14(2).
MLA	Qian, Chunhua,et al."Spatiotemporal Evolution Analysis and Future Scenario Prediction of Rocky Desertification in a Subtropical Karst Region".REMOTE SENSING 14.2(2022).