干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): The neglected role of relative humidity in the interannual variability of urban malaria in Indian cities

Arid

DOI	10.1038/s41467-022-28145-7
	The neglected role of relative humidity in the interannual variability of urban malaria in Indian cities
	Santos-Vega, M.; Martinez, P. P.; Vaishnav, K. G.; Kohli, V; Desai, V; Bouma, M. J.; Pascual, M.
通讯作者	Pascual, M (corresponding author)，Univ Chicago, Dept Ecol & Evolut, 940 E 57Th St, Chicago, IL 60637 USA.
来源期刊	NATURE COMMUNICATIONS
EISSN	2041-1723
出版年	2022
卷号	13 期号:1
英文摘要	The rapid pace of urbanization makes it imperative that we better understand the influence of climate forcing on urban malaria transmission. Despite extensive study of temperature effects in vector-borne infections in general, consideration of relative humidity remains limited. With process-based dynamical models informed by almost two decades of monthly surveillance data, we address the role of relative humidity in the interannual variability of epidemic malaria in two semi-arid cities of India. We show a strong and significant effect of humidity during the pre-transmission season on malaria burden in coastal Surat and more arid inland Ahmedabad. Simulations of the climate-driven transmission model with the MLE (Maximum Likelihood Estimates) of the parameters retrospectively capture the observed variability of disease incidence, and also prospectively predict that of 'out-of-fit' cases in more recent years, with high accuracy. Our findings indicate that relative humidity is a critical factor in the spread of urban malaria and potentially other vector-borne epidemics, and that climate change and lack of hydrological planning in cities might jeopardize malaria elimination efforts. Climate conditions and urbanization can be major drivers of vector-borne infections. Here the authors demonstrate that an often-neglected climate variable, humidity, is an important factor for malaria epidemics in two urban areas in India.
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold, Green Published
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000749187600005
WOS关键词	ANOPHELES-STEPHENSI ; TIME-SERIES ; TEMPERATURE ; CLIMATE ; INFERENCE ; DYNAMICS
WOS类目	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/376507
作者单位	[Santos-Vega, M.; Pascual, M.] Univ Chicago, Dept Ecol & Evolut, 940 E 57Th St, Chicago, IL 60637 USA; [Santos-Vega, M.] Univ los Andes, Dept Ingn Biomed, Grp Invest Biol Matemat & Computac BIOMAC, Bogota, Colombia; [Martinez, P. P.] Univ Illinois, Dept Microbiol, Champaign, IL USA; [Martinez, P. P.] Univ Illinois, Dept Stat, Champaign, IL USA; [Vaishnav, K. G.] Surat Municipal Corp, Hlth Dept, Vector Borne Dis Control Dept, Surat, India; [Kohli, V] Ahmedabad Municipal Corp, Ahmadabad, Gujarat, India; [Desai, V] Urban Hlth & Climate Resilience Ctr Excellence, UHCRCE, Surat, India; [Bouma, M. J.] ISGlobal, Barcelona, Spain
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Santos-Vega, M.,Martinez, P. P.,Vaishnav, K. G.,et al. The neglected role of relative humidity in the interannual variability of urban malaria in Indian cities[J],2022,13(1).
APA	Santos-Vega, M..,Martinez, P. P..,Vaishnav, K. G..,Kohli, V.,Desai, V.,...&Pascual, M..(2022).The neglected role of relative humidity in the interannual variability of urban malaria in Indian cities.NATURE COMMUNICATIONS,13(1).
MLA	Santos-Vega, M.,et al."The neglected role of relative humidity in the interannual variability of urban malaria in Indian cities".NATURE COMMUNICATIONS 13.1(2022).