干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Analysis and forecasting of rainfall trends in semi-arid Bundelkhand region of Madhya Pradesh, India: using statistical methods

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s12665-021-10159-x
	Analysis and forecasting of rainfall trends in semi-arid Bundelkhand region of Madhya Pradesh, India: using statistical methods
	Som, Kalyan Sundar; Dey, Mousumi
通讯作者	Som, KS (corresponding author)，Govt Autonomous Girls PG Coll Excellence, Dept Geog, Sagar, India.
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL EARTH SCIENCES
ISSN	1866-6280
EISSN	1866-6299
出版年	2022
卷号	81 期号:3
英文摘要	The present study is mainly concerned with one of the crucial climatic variables, i.e., precipitation for analyzing the trend of rainfall in five districts (Chhatarpur, Damoh, Panna, Sagar, Tikamgarh) of the Bundelkhand region (a semi-arid region) of Madhya Pradesh. In this region, agriculture is the single most important activity in sustaining livelihoods, and though several irrigation schemes are being operated, the quality of irrigation services is poor and most of the cultivated land is still dependent on rainfall. Hence, examining the temporal variation of rainfall is vital and it will help to assess climatic-induced changes and suggest feasible adaptation strategies. Statistical analysis techniques like the Mann-Kendall test, Sen's slope estimator, the MGCTI Bertin matrix and climate extreme indices (CDD, R95p and RX1Day) were used to estimate the seasonal, monthly and annual rainfall trend and its variability for the period from 1951 to 2018. The Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA) has been used for the forecasting of annual rainfall in this study area from 2019 to 2050. The Results show that there is no significant trend in the annual rainfall pattern, though in every case it is negative (Sen slope). The summer and winter season of each district had above 75% of CV, highlighting the extremely high variability of precipitation. The Regional index showed that the second half of the study period was more drought prone than the previous one, indicating a clear symptom of climate change. The annual decrease in rainfall from the ARIMA model (2019-2050) for the region is 7.60 mm per year, though spatial variation is also observed from ARIMA predictions.
英文关键词	Precipitation trend analysis Mann-Kendall test Sen's slope analysis ARIMA model Bundelkhand region MGCTI graph
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000749519200001
WOS关键词	MANN-KENDALL ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; PRECIPITATION ; 20TH-CENTURY ; VARIABILITY ; BANGLADESH ; DISTRICTS ; PATTERNS ; INDEXES ; TESTS
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Geology ; Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/376471
作者单位	[Som, Kalyan Sundar] Govt Autonomous Girls PG Coll Excellence, Dept Geog, Sagar, India; [Dey, Mousumi] Univ Madras, Sch Earth & Atmospher Sci, Dept Geog, Chennai, Tamil Nadu, India
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Som, Kalyan Sundar,Dey, Mousumi. Analysis and forecasting of rainfall trends in semi-arid Bundelkhand region of Madhya Pradesh, India: using statistical methods[J],2022,81(3).
APA	Som, Kalyan Sundar,&Dey, Mousumi.(2022).Analysis and forecasting of rainfall trends in semi-arid Bundelkhand region of Madhya Pradesh, India: using statistical methods.ENVIRONMENTAL EARTH SCIENCES,81(3).
MLA	Som, Kalyan Sundar,et al."Analysis and forecasting of rainfall trends in semi-arid Bundelkhand region of Madhya Pradesh, India: using statistical methods".ENVIRONMENTAL EARTH SCIENCES 81.3(2022).