干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Attribution of the Extreme Drought in the Horn of Africa during Short-Rains of 2016 and Long-Rains of 2017

Arid

DOI	10.3390/w14030409
	Attribution of the Extreme Drought in the Horn of Africa during Short-Rains of 2016 and Long-Rains of 2017
	Han, Xue; Li, Yan; Yu, Weidong; Feng, Licheng
通讯作者	Li, Y
来源期刊	WATER
EISSN	2073-4441
出版年	2022
卷号	14 期号:3
英文摘要	The Horn of Africa (HOA) is one of the most drought-prone regions in the world with many arid and semiarid areas, and even some extremely arid areas. Primarily affected by the marine continental climate systems, this zone is really sensitive to global warming. Drought is the main type of natural disaster affecting this region, which triggers famine, civil conflict, and even deterioration of food security. The present study examined changes in droughts in the HOA during 1979-2019 based on Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI). Results show that frequency, duration, and intensity of droughts exhibited an increasing trend over the past decades. Moreover, in October to December (called locate short rains) 2016 and March to May (called locate long rains) 2017, the HOA experienced the most severe drought. Based on Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) fitting, the 2016/2017 SPEI index corresponds to a drought that occurs every 250 years in the observational records. However, considering the precipitation in short rains of 2016 (long rains of 2017) was only 27.1% (11.8%) less than normal, it is hard to explain the formation of this extreme drought only from precipitation anomalies. Further statistical result shows that the evaporation in 2016/2017 corresponds to a 1-in-131 years event in the observed records. The abnormally high temperature (1.02 degrees C higher than normal) as well as the greatest potential evaporation since 1979 are the more important causes for the formation of drought. Thus, the extreme drought in 2016/2017, probably caused by the combined effect of dry condition and high temperature simultaneously, and the latter, played a leading role. In other words, droughts can be exacerbated by the co-occurrence of extreme high temperature. With continuous warming caused by anthropogenic activities in the next decades, the Horn of Africa may be a hotspot of the compound droughts and, therefore, it is especially important to considering the combined impacts from less precipitation and high temperature when predicting the future drought trend and making adaptation measures.
英文关键词	the Horn of Africa extreme events drought compound drought global warming
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000754476400001
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-CHANGE ; INDIAN-OCEAN ; EASTERN AFRICA ; GREATER HORN ; VARIABILITY ; RAINFALL ; INDEX ; TEMPERATURE ; ADAPTATION ; ANOMALIES
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/376434
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Han, Xue,Li, Yan,Yu, Weidong,et al. Attribution of the Extreme Drought in the Horn of Africa during Short-Rains of 2016 and Long-Rains of 2017[J],2022,14(3).
APA	Han, Xue,Li, Yan,Yu, Weidong,&Feng, Licheng.(2022).Attribution of the Extreme Drought in the Horn of Africa during Short-Rains of 2016 and Long-Rains of 2017.WATER,14(3).
MLA	Han, Xue,et al."Attribution of the Extreme Drought in the Horn of Africa during Short-Rains of 2016 and Long-Rains of 2017".WATER 14.3(2022).