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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ac536d
	Nowcasting tracks of severe convective storms in West Africa from observations of land surface state
	Taylor, Christopher M.; Klein, Cornelia; Dione, Cheikh; Parker, Douglas J.; Marsham, John; Diop, Cheikh Abdoulahat; Fletcher, Jennifer; Chaibou, Abdoul Aziz Saidou; Nafissa, Dignon Bertin; Semeena, Valiyaveetil Shamsudheen; Cole, Steven J.; Anderson, Seonaid R.
通讯作者	Taylor, CM (corresponding author)，UK Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Wallingford, Oxon, England. ; Taylor, CM (corresponding author)，Natl Ctr Earth Observat, Wallingford, Oxon, England.
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN	1748-9326
出版年	2022
卷号	17 期号:3
英文摘要	In tropical convective climates, where numerical weather prediction of rainfall has high uncertainty, nowcasting provides essential alerts of extreme events several hours ahead. In principle, short-term prediction of intense convective storms could benefit from knowledge of the slowly evolving land surface state in regions where soil moisture controls surface fluxes. Here we explore how near-real time (NRT) satellite observations of the land surface and convective clouds can be combined to aid early warning of severe weather in the Sahel on time scales of up to 12 h. Using land surface temperature (LST) as a proxy for soil moisture deficit, we characterise the state of the surface energy balance in NRT. We identify the most convectively active parts of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) from spatial filtering of cloud-top temperature imagery. We find that predictive skill provided by LST data is maximised early in the rainy season, when soils are drier and vegetation less developed. Land-based skill in predicting intense convection extends well beyond the afternoon, with strong positive correlations between daytime LST and MCS activity persisting as far as the following morning in more arid conditions. For a Forecasting Testbed event during September 2021, we developed a simple technique to translate LST data into NRT maps quantifying the likelihood of convection based solely on land state. We used these maps in combination with convective features to nowcast the tracks of existing MCSs, and predict likely new initiation locations. This is the first time to our knowledge that nowcasting tools based principally on land observations have been developed. The strong sensitivity of Sahelian MCSs to soil moisture, in combination with MCS life times of typically 6-18 h, opens up the opportunity for nowcasting of hazardous weather well beyond what is possible from atmospheric observations alone, and could be applied elsewhere in the semi-arid tropics.
英文关键词	nowcasting mesoscale convective systems soil moisture Sahel
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000759833800001
WOS关键词	SOIL-MOISTURE ; PART I ; SYSTEM ; RAINFALL ; FREQUENCY ; CYCLE
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/376230
作者单位	[Taylor, Christopher M.; Klein, Cornelia; Semeena, Valiyaveetil Shamsudheen; Cole, Steven J.; Anderson, Seonaid R.] UK Ctr Ecol & Hydrol, Wallingford, Oxon, England; [Taylor, Christopher M.] Natl Ctr Earth Observat, Wallingford, Oxon, England; [Klein, Cornelia] Univ Innsbruck, Dept Atmospher & Cryospher Sci, Innsbruck, Austria; [Dione, Cheikh] African Ctr Meteorol Applicat Dev ACMAD, Niamey, Niger; [Parker, Douglas J.; Marsham, John; Fletcher, Jennifer] Univ Leeds, Inst Climate & Atmospher Sci, Leeds, W Yorkshire, England; [Parker, Douglas J.] Bjerknes Ctr Climate Res, NORCE Norwegian Res Ctr, Bergen, Norway; [Diop, Cheikh Abdoulahat] Agence Natl Aviat Civile & Meteorol, Dakar, Senegal; [Chaibou, Abdoul Aziz Saidou; Nafissa, Dignon Bertin] Direct Meteorol Natl, Niamey, Niger
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Taylor, Christopher M.,Klein, Cornelia,Dione, Cheikh,et al. Nowcasting tracks of severe convective storms in West Africa from observations of land surface state[J],2022,17(3).
APA	Taylor, Christopher M..,Klein, Cornelia.,Dione, Cheikh.,Parker, Douglas J..,Marsham, John.,...&Anderson, Seonaid R..(2022).Nowcasting tracks of severe convective storms in West Africa from observations of land surface state.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,17(3).
MLA	Taylor, Christopher M.,et al."Nowcasting tracks of severe convective storms in West Africa from observations of land surface state".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 17.3(2022).