干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Climate change effects on desert ecosystems: A case study on the keystone species of the Namib Desert Welwitschia mirabilis

Arid

DOI	10.1371/journal.pone.0259767
	Climate change effects on desert ecosystems: A case study on the keystone species of the Namib Desert Welwitschia mirabilis
	Bombi, Pierluigi; Salvi, Daniele; Shuuya, Titus; Vignoli, Leonardo; Wassenaar, Theo
通讯作者	Bombi, P (corresponding author)，CNR, Inst Res Terr Ecosyst, Rome, Italy.
来源期刊	PLOS ONE
ISSN	1932-6203
出版年	2021
卷号	16 期号:11
英文摘要	Deserts have been predicted to be one of the most responsive ecosystems to global climate change. In this study, we examine the spatial and demographic response of a keystone endemic plant of the Namib Desert (Welwitschia mirabilis), for which displacement and reduction of suitable climate has been foreseen under future conditions. The main aim is to assess the association between ongoing climate change and geographical patterns of welwitschia health, reproductive status, and size. We collected data on welwitschia distribution, health condition, reproductive status, and plant size in northern Namibia. We used ecological niche models to predict the expected geographic shift of suitability under climate change scenarios. For each variable, we compared our field measurements with the expected ongoing change in climate suitability. Finally, we tested the presence of simple geographical gradients in the observed patterns. The historically realized thermal niche of welwitschia will be almost completely unavailable in the next 30 years in northern Namibia. Expected reductions of climatic suitability in our study sites were strongly associated with indicators of negative population conditions, namely lower plant health, reduced recruitment and increased adult mortality. Population condition does not follow simple latitudinal or altitudinal gradients. The observed pattern of population traits is consistent with climate change trends and projections. This makes welwitschia a suitable bioindicator (i.e. a 'sentinel') for climate change effect in the Namib Desert ecosystems. Our spatially explicit approach, combining suitability modeling with geographic combinations of population conditions measured in the field, could be extensively adopted to identify sentinel species, and detect population responses to climate change in other regions and ecosystems.
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold, Green Published
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000755468000054
WOS关键词	POTENTIAL IMPACTS ; RANGE ; PLANT ; BIODIVERSITY ; PHOTOSYNTHESIS ; RESPONSES ; STRESS ; MODELS ; FUTURE ; SHIFTS
WOS类目	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/375851
作者单位	[Bombi, Pierluigi; Vignoli, Leonardo] CNR, Inst Res Terr Ecosyst, Rome, Italy; [Salvi, Daniele] Univ Aquila, Dept Hlth Life & Environm Sci, Laquila, Italy; [Shuuya, Titus] Gobabeb Namib Res Inst, Walvis Bay, Namibia; [Vignoli, Leonardo] Univ Roma Tre, Dept Sci, Rome, Italy; [Wassenaar, Theo] Namibia Univ Sci & Technol, Dept Agr & Nat Resources Sci, Windhoek, Namibia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Bombi, Pierluigi,Salvi, Daniele,Shuuya, Titus,et al. Climate change effects on desert ecosystems: A case study on the keystone species of the Namib Desert Welwitschia mirabilis[J],2021,16(11).
APA	Bombi, Pierluigi,Salvi, Daniele,Shuuya, Titus,Vignoli, Leonardo,&Wassenaar, Theo.(2021).Climate change effects on desert ecosystems: A case study on the keystone species of the Namib Desert Welwitschia mirabilis.PLOS ONE,16(11).
MLA	Bombi, Pierluigi,et al."Climate change effects on desert ecosystems: A case study on the keystone species of the Namib Desert Welwitschia mirabilis".PLOS ONE 16.11(2021).