干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Climate Change is Likely to Alter Sheep and Goat Distributions in Mainland China

Arid

DOI	10.3389/fenvs.2021.748734
	Climate Change is Likely to Alter Sheep and Goat Distributions in Mainland China
	Zhang, Yongxiang; Wang, Guogang; Zhang, Yu; Zhao, Sicheng; Han, Chengji
通讯作者	Wang, GG (corresponding author)，Chinses Acad Agr Sci, Inst Agr Econ & Dev, Beijing, Peoples R China.
来源期刊	FRONTIERS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE
EISSN	2296-665X
出版年	2021
卷号	9
英文摘要	Climate change endangers food security worldwide, especially in developing countries. Livestock husbandry is one of the essential livelihoods for farmers and herders in remote arid and semiarid regions. However, it remains unclear how climate change will impact livestock husbandry in the future. This study collected sheep and goat distributions from the gridded livestock of the world (GLW) dataset for 1943 counties in Mainland China. Current climate data include precipitation and temperature from the National Meteorological Information Center (NMIC). We disentangled the effects of precipitation and temperature on current distributions of sheep and goats with the Bayesian Hierarchical Model by Integrated Nest Laplace Approximation (INLA). Further, we forecasted the potential sheep and goat distributions in 2030 and 2050 under Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) scenarios. Our result showed that sheep distribution is significantly correlated with elevation, slope, market density, and highway distance, with absolute correlation coefficients ranging from 0.019 to 0.411. In addition to elevation, slope, and market density, goat distribution is also affected by gain production, with a correlation coefficient of 0.055. There is a dynamic correlation of temperature and precipitation with sheep and goat density. The sheep density distribution is predicted to increase in Northwest China, while the goat density distribution might increase in farming areas under climate change. Finally, this study suggests for the sheep and goat breeding industry to respond to climate change.
英文关键词	integrated nest laplace approximation (INLA) bayesian hierarchical model rainfall CMIP 6 market factors
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000735856100001
WOS关键词	LIVESTOCK ; PRECIPITATION ; IMPACT ; MODEL ; CROP ; UNCERTAINTY ; INLA
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/375681
作者单位	[Zhang, Yongxiang; Wang, Guogang; Zhang, Yu; Zhao, Sicheng; Han, Chengji] Chinses Acad Agr Sci, Inst Agr Econ & Dev, Beijing, Peoples R China; [Han, Chengji] Chinese Acad Sci, Res Ctr Ecoenvironm Sci, State Key Lab Urban & Reg Ecol, Beijing, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Yongxiang,Wang, Guogang,Zhang, Yu,et al. Climate Change is Likely to Alter Sheep and Goat Distributions in Mainland China[J],2021,9.
APA	Zhang, Yongxiang,Wang, Guogang,Zhang, Yu,Zhao, Sicheng,&Han, Chengji.(2021).Climate Change is Likely to Alter Sheep and Goat Distributions in Mainland China.FRONTIERS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE,9.
MLA	Zhang, Yongxiang,et al."Climate Change is Likely to Alter Sheep and Goat Distributions in Mainland China".FRONTIERS IN ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCE 9(2021).