干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Future changes of drought characteristics in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios over Central Asia

Arid

DOI	10.1002/joc.7450
	Future changes of drought characteristics in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios over Central Asia
	Guo, Hao; He, Shanfeng; Li, Min; Bao, Anming; Chen, Tao; Zheng, Guoxiong; De Maeyer, Philippe
通讯作者	Bao, AM (corresponding author), Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, State Key Lab Desert & Oasis Ecol, Urumqi 830011, Peoples R China.
来源期刊	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN	0899-8418
EISSN	1097-0088
出版年	2021-12
英文摘要	Understanding of future changes in drought characteristics is crucial for climate change adaptation and drought impact mitigation. We analysed the projected changes in drought characteristics relative to historical drought conditions in Central Asia using the Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index based on both gridded observations and an ensemble of bias-corrected and spatially disaggregated global circulation models (GCMs) from phase 6 of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6). The results suggest that precipitation and potential evapotranspiration are projected to increase across Central Asia. Even though the change in wetness may not be significant and robust, a dry gets drier and wet gets wetter pattern may emerge in future under different scenarios. Drought events in Central Asia's semi-arid and arid regions (aridity index <0.5) are projected to become more frequent (>125%), with longer duration (>55%), higher severity (>74%) and intensity (>8%) by the end of the 21st century under four Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios. In the coming period of 2021-2050, Central Asia is expected to have more drought events with a longer duration but lower intensity. Comparisons between different SSP scenarios stress the importance of climate change mitigation strategies to avoid more drought occurrence, longer drought duration and higher drought severity. The long-term mitigation and adaptation studies for increasing drought impacts are also imperative in Central Asia.
英文关键词	Central Asia climate change CMIP6 drought characteristics SPEI
类型	Article ; Early Access
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000726507100001
WOS关键词	GLOBAL DROUGHT ; SOIL-MOISTURE ; PRECIPITATION ; CHINA ; TRENDS ; INDEX ; TEMPERATURE ; VEGETATION ; IMPACTS ; FRAMEWORK
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/374689
作者单位	[Guo, Hao; He, Shanfeng; Li, Min] Qufu Normal Univ, Sch Geog & Tourism, Rizhao, Peoples R China; [Bao, Anming; Zheng, Guoxiong] Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, State Key Lab Desert & Oasis Ecol, Urumqi 830011, Peoples R China; [Chen, Tao] Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Geog & Planning, Dept Phys Geog Resources & Environm, Guangzhou, Peoples R China; [De Maeyer, Philippe] Univ Ghent, Dept Geog, Ghent, Belgium
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Guo, Hao,He, Shanfeng,Li, Min,et al. Future changes of drought characteristics in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios over Central Asia[J],2021.
APA	Guo, Hao.,He, Shanfeng.,Li, Min.,Bao, Anming.,Chen, Tao.,...&De Maeyer, Philippe.(2021).Future changes of drought characteristics in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios over Central Asia.INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY.
MLA	Guo, Hao,et al."Future changes of drought characteristics in Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 Shared Socioeconomic Pathway scenarios over Central Asia".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY (2021).