干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Twenty-first century drought analysis across China under climate change

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DOI	10.1007/s00382-021-06064-5
	Twenty-first century drought analysis across China under climate change
	Zhang, Gengxi; Gan, Thian Yew; Su, Xiaoling
通讯作者	Gan, TY (corresponding author), Univ Alberta, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Edmonton, AB, Canada.
来源期刊	CLIMATE DYNAMICS
ISSN	0930-7575
EISSN	1432-0894
出版年	2021-12
英文摘要	Under global warming, according to results obtained from offline drought indices driven by projections of general circulation models (GCMs), future droughts in China will worsen but the results are not consistent. We analyzed changes in droughts covering the entire hydrologic cycle using outputs of GCMs of the 6th Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) for SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5 climate scenarios, and compared the results with that of popular, offline drought indices [the self-calibrating Palmer Drought Severity Index (scPDSI), Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) and Standardized Precipitation Actual Evapotranspiration Index (SPAEI)]. Among meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological drought indices tested under both SSP scenarios, the results obtained from SPAEI and scPDSI agree better with univariate drought indices than SPEI. scPDSI generally agrees well with agricultural droughts (Standardized Soil Moisture Index with the surface soil moisture content; SSIS). Future droughts estimated using soil moisture analysis are more widespread than that from precipitation and runoff analysis in humid regions of South China by the end of the twenty-first century. In arid northwestern China and Inner Mongolia, drought areas and severity based on scPDSI and SSIS forced with the SSP scenarios show obvious decreasing trends, in contrast to increasing trends projected in South China. Trends projected using SPEI contradict those projected by other drought indices in non-humid regions. Therefore, selecting appropriate drought indices is crucial in project representative future droughts and provides meaningful information needed to achieve effective regional drought mitigation strategies under climate warming impact.
英文关键词	CMIP6 Drought analysis Precipitation Soil moisture Runoff scPDSI
类型	Article ; Early Access
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000724063700001
WOS关键词	INDEX ; CMIP5 ; PRECIPITATION ; ARIDITY ; IMPACT ; EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; SENSITIVITY ; FREQUENCY ; CO2
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/374670
作者单位	[Zhang, Gengxi; Su, Xiaoling] Northwest A&F Univ, Coll Water Resources & Architectural Engn, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China; [Gan, Thian Yew] Univ Alberta, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Edmonton, AB, Canada; [Zhang, Gengxi; Su, Xiaoling] Northwest A&F Univ, Key Lab Agr Soil & Water Engn Arid Area, Minist Educ, Yangling 712100, Shaanxi, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Gengxi,Gan, Thian Yew,Su, Xiaoling. Twenty-first century drought analysis across China under climate change[J],2021.
APA	Zhang, Gengxi,Gan, Thian Yew,&Su, Xiaoling.(2021).Twenty-first century drought analysis across China under climate change.CLIMATE DYNAMICS.
MLA	Zhang, Gengxi,et al."Twenty-first century drought analysis across China under climate change".CLIMATE DYNAMICS (2021).