干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Effect of increased greenhouse gas concentration on mean, extreme, and timing of precipitation over Arizona (USA)

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DOI	10.1002/joc.7444
	Effect of increased greenhouse gas concentration on mean, extreme, and timing of precipitation over Arizona (USA)
	Georgescu, Matei; Broadbent, Ashley Mark; Balling, Robert C., Jr.
通讯作者	Georgescu, M (corresponding author), Arizona State Univ, Sch Geog Sci & Urban Planning, 975 S Myrtle Ave,Fifth Floor,POB 875302, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA.
来源期刊	INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY
ISSN	0899-8418
EISSN	1097-0088
出版年	2021-11
英文摘要	We use a combination of a regional climate model (RCM) and a global climate model (GCM) to explore potential changes to the complex precipitation regime in the semi-arid and arid state of Arizona in the American Southwest. The RCM output for the contemporary period (2000-2009) compares well with a gridded precipitation dataset with respect to seasonality, amount, intensity, and diurnal patterns. Output from the GCM forced by the continued buildup of greenhouse gases was dynamically downscaled by the RCM for the period 2090-2099. Results indicate an increase in winter precipitation of 1-2 mm day(-1) in the mountainous areas of the state with somewhat smaller increases for the summer and fall seasons; negligible changes were projected for spring precipitation. Extreme precipitation is projected to increase across much of the state in winter (10-30 mm day(-1)) and to a lesser extent in spring. Our results indicate an increase in the 99th percentile of winter season precipitation. However, we note there is substantial seasonal dependency: statewide-averaged winter season precipitation is projected to undergo greater frequency of wet than dry extreme events, whereas the statewide-averaged summer, fall, and spring seasons, broadly demonstrate an equal likelihood of increased and decreased extreme precipitation. While the RCM captured the unusual observed night-time maximum in summer rainfall in the centre of the state, our results do not indicate any change in the diurnal character or sub-diurnal duration (6-18 hr) of precipitation over the next 100 years.
英文关键词	Arizona extreme precipitation global climate change mesoscale modeling precipitation WRF
类型	Article ; Early Access
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000723816600001
WOS关键词	DIURNAL-VARIATIONS ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; HIGH-RESOLUTION ; MODEL ; CMIP5 ; URBANIZATION ; EXPANSION ; RAINFALL ; IMPACTS ; RISK
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/374652
作者单位	[Georgescu, Matei; Broadbent, Ashley Mark; Balling, Robert C., Jr.] Arizona State Univ, Sch Geog Sci & Urban Planning, 975 S Myrtle Ave,Fifth Floor,POB 875302, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA; [Georgescu, Matei; Broadbent, Ashley Mark] Arizona State Univ, Urban Climate Res Ctr, Tempe, AZ 85287 USA; [Broadbent, Ashley Mark] Natl Inst Weather & Atmospher Res, Wellington, New Zealand
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Georgescu, Matei,Broadbent, Ashley Mark,Balling, Robert C., Jr.. Effect of increased greenhouse gas concentration on mean, extreme, and timing of precipitation over Arizona (USA)[J],2021.
APA	Georgescu, Matei,Broadbent, Ashley Mark,&Balling, Robert C., Jr..(2021).Effect of increased greenhouse gas concentration on mean, extreme, and timing of precipitation over Arizona (USA).INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY.
MLA	Georgescu, Matei,et al."Effect of increased greenhouse gas concentration on mean, extreme, and timing of precipitation over Arizona (USA)".INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY (2021).