干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Performance Assessment of Model Averaging Techniques to Reduce Structural Uncertainty of Groundwater Modeling

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s11269-021-03031-x
	Performance Assessment of Model Averaging Techniques to Reduce Structural Uncertainty of Groundwater Modeling
	Jafarzadeh, Ahmad; Khashei-Siuki, Abbas; Pourreza-Bilondi, Mohsen
通讯作者	Khashei-Siuki, A (corresponding author), Univ Birjand, Dept Water Engn, Birjand, Iran.
来源期刊	WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT
ISSN	0920-4741
EISSN	1573-1650
出版年	2022
英文摘要	Accurate estimates of groundwater modeling in arid regions have a crucial role in reaching a sustainable management of groundwater sources. However, groundwater modeling has been faced with different uncertainty sources; besides our imperfect knowledge, it is difficult to derive a proper prediction that can lead to reliable planning. This study aimed to improve the groundwater numerical simulations using different Model Averaging Techniques (MATs). For this, three numerical models, such as Finite Difference (FD), Finite Element (FE), and Meshfree (Mfree), were developed and their performance was verified in a real-world case study. Then various MATs including Simple Model Average (SMA), Weighted Average Method (WAM), Multi Model Super Ensemble (MMSE), Modified MMSE (M3SE) and Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) were employed to improve the simulated groundwater level Fluctuations (outputs of three numerical models). The findings of this study demonstrated that the numerical model uncertainty is considerable and should not be neglected in the uncertainty analysis of groundwater modeling. In terms of RMSE, the lowest value of 0.148 m was obtained by Mfree while higher values of 1.355 m and 0.287 m are calculated for FD and FE respectively. In addition, the performance assessment of MATs showed a capacity to generate a skillful simulation compared to numerical predictions. Although the MMSE and M3SE (with RMSE values of 0.088 and 0.103 m) generated a desirable prediction in the majority of piezometers, they suffer from a main deficiency, such as the multicollinearity issue. From this perspective, it was concluded that the BMA produced a more reliable and reasonable prediction than other MATs.
英文关键词	Mathematical model uncertainty Mesh less Radial interpolation method Consensus prediction Weight estimation
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000723569000001
WOS关键词	PARAMETER UNCERTAINTY ; UNCONFINED AQUIFER ; FLOW ; COMBINATION ; SIMULATION ; PREDICTION ; IMPROVE ; STRATEGIES ; MANAGEMENT ; FRAMEWORK
WOS类目	Engineering, Civil ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/374648
作者单位	[Jafarzadeh, Ahmad; Khashei-Siuki, Abbas; Pourreza-Bilondi, Mohsen] Univ Birjand, Dept Water Engn, Birjand, Iran
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Jafarzadeh, Ahmad,Khashei-Siuki, Abbas,Pourreza-Bilondi, Mohsen. Performance Assessment of Model Averaging Techniques to Reduce Structural Uncertainty of Groundwater Modeling[J],2022.
APA	Jafarzadeh, Ahmad,Khashei-Siuki, Abbas,&Pourreza-Bilondi, Mohsen.(2022).Performance Assessment of Model Averaging Techniques to Reduce Structural Uncertainty of Groundwater Modeling.WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT.
MLA	Jafarzadeh, Ahmad,et al."Performance Assessment of Model Averaging Techniques to Reduce Structural Uncertainty of Groundwater Modeling".WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT (2022).