干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Evaluation of Nine Operational Models in Forecasting Different Types of Synoptic Dust Events in the Middle East

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DOI	10.3390/geosciences11110458
	Evaluation of Nine Operational Models in Forecasting Different Types of Synoptic Dust Events in the Middle East
	Karami, Sara; Kaskaoutis, Dimitris G.; Kashani, Saviz Sehat; Rahnama, Mehdi; Rashki, Alireza
通讯作者	Kaskaoutis, DG (corresponding author), Natl Observ Athens, Inst Environm Res & Sustainable Dev, Athens 15236, Greece. ; Kaskaoutis, DG (corresponding author), Univ Crete, Dept Chem, Environm Chem Processes Lab, Iraklion 70013, Greece.
来源期刊	GEOSCIENCES
EISSN	2076-3263
出版年	2021
卷号	11 期号:11
英文摘要	This study investigates four types of synoptic dust events in the Middle East region, including cyclonic, pre-frontal, post-frontal and Shamal dust storms. For each of these types, three intense and pervasive dust events are analyzed from a synoptic meteorological and numerical simulation perspective. The performance of 9 operational dust models in forecasting these dust events in the Middle East is qualitatively and quantitatively evaluated against Terra-MODIS observations and AERONET measurements during the dust events. The comparison of model AOD outputs with Terra-MODIS retrievals reveals that despite the significant discrepancies, all models have a relatively acceptable performance in forecasting the AOD patterns in the Middle East. The models enable to represent the high AODs along the dust plumes, although they underestimate them, especially for cyclonic dust storms. In general, the outputs of the NASA-GEOS and DREAM8-MACC models present greater similarity with the satellite and AERONET observations in most of the cases, also exhibiting the highest correlation coefficient, although it is difficult to introduce a single model as the best for all cases. Model AOD predictions over the AERONET stations showed that DREAM8-MACC exhibited the highest R-2 of 0.78, followed by NASA_GEOS model (R-2 = 0.74), which both initially use MODIS data assimilation. Although the outputs of all models correspond to valid time more than 24 h after the initial time, the effect of data assimilation on increasing the accuracy is important. The different dust emission schemes, soil and vegetation mapping, initial and boundary meteorological conditions and spatial resolution between the models, are the main factors influencing the differences in forecasting the dust AODs in the Middle East.
英文关键词	dust forecasting models remote sensing cyclones frontal dust storms Shamal Middle East
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	ESCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000725248900001
WOS关键词	DESERT DUST ; MINERAL DUST ; HUMAN HEALTH ; NUMERICAL-SIMULATION ; DAILY MORTALITY ; CASPIAN SEA ; SHAMAL WIND ; EMISSION ; SUMMER ; STORMS
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向	Geology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/374325
作者单位	[Karami, Sara; Kashani, Saviz Sehat; Rahnama, Mehdi] Atmospher Sci & Meteorol Res Ctr ASMERC, Tehran 1497716385, Iran; [Kaskaoutis, Dimitris G.] Natl Observ Athens, Inst Environm Res & Sustainable Dev, Athens 15236, Greece; [Kaskaoutis, Dimitris G.] Univ Crete, Dept Chem, Environm Chem Processes Lab, Iraklion 70013, Greece; [Rashki, Alireza] Ferdowsi Univ Mashhad, Dept Desert & Arid Zones Management, Mashhad 9177948974, Razavi Khorasan, Iran
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Karami, Sara,Kaskaoutis, Dimitris G.,Kashani, Saviz Sehat,et al. Evaluation of Nine Operational Models in Forecasting Different Types of Synoptic Dust Events in the Middle East[J],2021,11(11).
APA	Karami, Sara,Kaskaoutis, Dimitris G.,Kashani, Saviz Sehat,Rahnama, Mehdi,&Rashki, Alireza.(2021).Evaluation of Nine Operational Models in Forecasting Different Types of Synoptic Dust Events in the Middle East.GEOSCIENCES,11(11).
MLA	Karami, Sara,et al."Evaluation of Nine Operational Models in Forecasting Different Types of Synoptic Dust Events in the Middle East".GEOSCIENCES 11.11(2021).