干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Quantifying changes and drivers of runoff in the Kaidu River Basin associated with plausible climate scenarios

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DOI	10.1016/j.ejrh.2021.100968
	Quantifying changes and drivers of runoff in the Kaidu River Basin associated with plausible climate scenarios
	Zhao, Bingqian; Sun, Huaiwei; Yan, Dong; Wei, Guanghui; Tuo, Ye; Zhang, Wenxin
通讯作者	Sun, HW (corresponding author), Huazhong Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Civil & Hydraul Engn, Wuhan 430074, Peoples R China. ; Zhang, WX (corresponding author), Lund Univ, Dept Phys Geog & Ecosyst Sci, Solvegatan 12, S-22362 Lund, Sweden.
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES
EISSN	2214-5818
出版年	2021
卷号	38
英文摘要	Study region: The Kaidu River Basin (KRB) is located on the central southern slope of the Tianshan Mountain in Northwest China. Study focus: This work aimed to assess changes and main drivers of snowmelt-driven runoff in KRB associated with three future climate scenarios. Six versions of the Cemaneige snowmelt module embedded in the hydrological model GR4J were calibrated and evaluated. The biascorrected climate datasets from CMIP5 Models were used to drive the optimal snowmelthydrological model for runoff prediction. The factors that lead to runoff variations were also assessed. New hydrological insights: The significant declining trends of runoff were only predicted in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The declining trends of runoff were found in all the seasons. For the annual and summer runoff, compared to the historical period, both the RCP2.6 and RCP 4.5 periods showed a decline in the mid-century and a rise in the end-century; however, RCP8.5 showed a continuous decline during this period. Precipitation and evapotranspiration were ranked as the two most important factors regulating future runoff variations in all RCPs. In contrast, snowmelt timing is the second factor in the historical period, and its importance decreases in the warmer RCP scenarios. These results highlighted that the importance of snowmelt and snowmelt timing to the future runoff depends on the runoff responses to the trajectory of future changes in temperature and precipitation.
英文关键词	Snowmelt timing ISIMIP2b Tarim River Basin Hydrological modeling China
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000721679600004
WOS关键词	SNOW-ACCOUNTING ROUTINE ; TIANSHAN MOUNTAINS ; WATER-RESOURCES ; CHANGE IMPACTS ; MODEL COMPONENTS ; ARID REGION ; PART 1 ; TEMPERATURE ; VARIABILITY ; STREAMFLOW
WOS类目	Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Water Resources
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/374069
作者单位	[Zhao, Bingqian; Sun, Huaiwei; Yan, Dong] Huazhong Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Civil & Hydraul Engn, Wuhan 430074, Peoples R China; [Wei, Guanghui] Tarim River Basin Management Bur, Korla 841000, Peoples R China; [Tuo, Ye] Tech Univ Munich, Chair Hydrol & River Basin Management, Arcisstr 21, D-80333 Munich, Germany; [Zhang, Wenxin] Lund Univ, Dept Phys Geog & Ecosyst Sci, Solvegatan 12, S-22362 Lund, Sweden; [Zhang, Wenxin] Univ Copenhagen, Ctr Permafrost CENPERM, Dept Geosci & Nat Resource Management, Oster Voldgade 10, DK-1350 Copenhagen, Denmark
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhao, Bingqian,Sun, Huaiwei,Yan, Dong,et al. Quantifying changes and drivers of runoff in the Kaidu River Basin associated with plausible climate scenarios[J],2021,38.
APA	Zhao, Bingqian,Sun, Huaiwei,Yan, Dong,Wei, Guanghui,Tuo, Ye,&Zhang, Wenxin.(2021).Quantifying changes and drivers of runoff in the Kaidu River Basin associated with plausible climate scenarios.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES,38.
MLA	Zhao, Bingqian,et al."Quantifying changes and drivers of runoff in the Kaidu River Basin associated with plausible climate scenarios".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES 38(2021).