干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Paleoclimate-conditioning reveals a North Africa land-atmosphere tipping point

Arid

DOI	10.1073/pnas.2108783118
	Paleoclimate-conditioning reveals a North Africa land-atmosphere tipping point
	Hopcroft, Peter O.; Valdes, Paul J.
通讯作者	Hopcroft, PO (corresponding author), Univ Birmingham, Sch Geog Earth & Environm Sci, Birmingham B15 2TT, W Midlands, England.
来源期刊	PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA
ISSN	0027-8424
出版年	2021
卷号	118 期号:45
英文摘要	While paleoclimate records show that the Earth System is characterized by several different tipping points, their representation within Earth System models (ESMs) remains poorly constrained. This is because historical observations do not encompass variations large enough to provoke such regime changes, and paleoclimate conditions are rarely used to help develop and tune ESMs, which potentially ignores a rich source of information on abrupt climate change. A critical example is the early to mid-Holocene greening and subsequent rapid desertification of the Sahara, which most ESMs fail to reproduce, casting doubt on the representation of land-atmosphere coupling and monsoon dynamics. Here, we show that this greening and abrupt termination can be successfully simulated with one ESM after optimizing uncertain model components using both present-day observations and crucially mid-Holocene (6,000 y before present) reconstructions. The optimized model displays abrupt threshold behavior, which shows excellent agreement with long paleoclimate records that were not used in the original optimization. These results suggest that in order to realistically capture climate-system thresholds, ESMs first need to be conditioned with appropriate paleoclimate information.
英文关键词	tipping point abrupt climate change climate model
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	Green Published, hybrid
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000720928400014
WOS关键词	CLIMATE-MODEL ; COUPLED MODEL ; ABRUPT CHANGE ; HUMID PERIOD ; SIMULATIONS ; VEGETATION ; MIDHOLOCENE ; SYSTEM ; SAHARA ; TERMINATION
WOS类目	Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/373841
作者单位	[Hopcroft, Peter O.] Univ Birmingham, Sch Geog Earth & Environm Sci, Birmingham B15 2TT, W Midlands, England; [Valdes, Paul J.] Univ Bristol, Sch Geog Sci, Bristol Res Initiat Dynam Global Environm, Bristol BS8 1SS, Avon, England; [Valdes, Paul J.] Univ Bristol, Cabot Inst, Bristol BS8 1SS, Avon, England
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Hopcroft, Peter O.,Valdes, Paul J.. Paleoclimate-conditioning reveals a North Africa land-atmosphere tipping point[J],2021,118(45).
APA	Hopcroft, Peter O.,&Valdes, Paul J..(2021).Paleoclimate-conditioning reveals a North Africa land-atmosphere tipping point.PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA,118(45).
MLA	Hopcroft, Peter O.,et al."Paleoclimate-conditioning reveals a North Africa land-atmosphere tipping point".PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA 118.45(2021).