干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Spatio-temporal dynamics of malaria expansion under climate change in semi-arid areas of Ethiopia

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DOI	10.1080/17477891.2019.1609405
	Spatio-temporal dynamics of malaria expansion under climate change in semi-arid areas of Ethiopia
	Abrha, Haftu; Hagos, Haftom; Brhane, Emiru; Hadgu, Meseret; Mamo, Girma
通讯作者	Abrha, H (corresponding author), Mekelle Univ, ICS, Mekelle, Ethiopia.
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL HAZARDS-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS
ISSN	1747-7891
EISSN	1878-0059
出版年	2019
卷号	18 期号:5 页码:400-413
英文摘要	Malaria is a leading and severe disease in Ethiopia, particularly like the Tigray region. The main objectives of the study were to model the influence of climate change on malaria transmission in Tigray and identify environmental variables that contribute to malaria. Aiming these objectives, Kafta Humera, Raya Azebo and Laelay Adiabo districts were purposively selected based on their malaria prevalence. Two hundred and nine mosquito occurrence points were collected from the study area. Collected occurrence points, altitude and 19 bioclimatic variables were run in Maxent software. Malaria transmission was simulated for themiddle and end of the twenty-first century using two representative concentration pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios driving ensemble of three general circulation models. The results show that the area suitable for malaria transmission is simulated to increase by 93.8% (RCP4.5) and 113.9% (RCP8.5) by mid-century and by 161% (RCP4.5) and 149% (RCP8.5) by the end of the twenty-first century, when compared with the historical baseline. This indicates that the area suitable for malaria transmission is simulated to increase due to climate change over the region. Therefore, the study recommends well prevention and control of malaria to ensure the health of people.
英文关键词	Malaria Maxent climate change Anopheles mosquitoes
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SSCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000470597400001
WOS关键词	POTENTIAL GEOGRAPHIC-DISTRIBUTION ; SPECIES DISTRIBUTIONS ; TRANSMISSION ; IMPACT ; TEMPERATURE ; MODELS ; RISK
WOS类目	Environmental Studies
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/369935
作者单位	[Abrha, Haftu; Hagos, Haftom] Mekelle Univ, ICS, Mekelle, Ethiopia; [Brhane, Emiru] Mekelle Univ, Dept Land Resources Management & Environm, Mekelle, Ethiopia; [Brhane, Emiru] Norwegian Univ Life Sci, Fac Environm Sci & Nat Resource Management, As, Norway; [Hadgu, Meseret] Tigray Agr Mkt Promot Agcy, Mekelle, Ethiopia; [Mamo, Girma] EIAR, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Abrha, Haftu,Hagos, Haftom,Brhane, Emiru,et al. Spatio-temporal dynamics of malaria expansion under climate change in semi-arid areas of Ethiopia[J],2019,18(5):400-413.
APA	Abrha, Haftu,Hagos, Haftom,Brhane, Emiru,Hadgu, Meseret,&Mamo, Girma.(2019).Spatio-temporal dynamics of malaria expansion under climate change in semi-arid areas of Ethiopia.ENVIRONMENTAL HAZARDS-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS,18(5),400-413.
MLA	Abrha, Haftu,et al."Spatio-temporal dynamics of malaria expansion under climate change in semi-arid areas of Ethiopia".ENVIRONMENTAL HAZARDS-HUMAN AND POLICY DIMENSIONS 18.5(2019):400-413.