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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/ab55fd
	Latitudinal heterogeneity and hotspots of uncertainty in projected extreme precipitation
	Tabari, Hossein; Hosseinzadehtalaei, Parisa; AghaKouchak, Amir; Willems, Patrick
通讯作者	Tabari, H (corresponding author), Katholieke Univ Leuven, Dept Civil Engn, Hydraul Sect, Leuven, Belgium.
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN	1748-9326
出版年	2019
卷号	14 期号:12
英文摘要	Projected precipitation from climate models is used in a wide range of fields for climate change impact assessment. However, the spatial pattern of uncertainty across latitudes and the global uncertainty hotspots are not well understood despite their importance for regional adaptation planning. In this study, we describe uncertainties in projected extreme precipitation changes per K global warming across latitudes, and decompose the overall uncertainty into climate model and internal variability uncertainties. We then identify global uncertainty hotspots and discuss the broader implications. Our results show that both uncertainty sources are highly heterogeneous across latitudes, while climate model uncertainty exceeds internal variability uncertainty for all seasons and precipitation intensities. The largest difference between model and internal variability uncertainties is found in tropical regions where model uncertainty is thrice as large as internal variability uncertainty in June July August season and twice as large as that in the other seasons. Tropical and subtropical regions are identified as the global uncertainty hotspots, with the Sahara desert and the southern part of the Middle East being the local hotspots. The large uncertainty in the tropics and subtropics is primarily due to the convective nature of rainstorms which cannot be adequately represented by coarse-scale climate models, and also to sparse observation networks based on which climate models can be tuned and improved. The results highlight areas where future model development and improvement efforts should focus to reduce the overall uncertainties in projected precipitation extremes.
英文关键词	climate change extreme precipitation latitudinal pattern uncertainty hotspots global warming
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold, Green Accepted
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000514833200007
WOS关键词	CLIMATE ; TEMPERATURE ; SENSITIVITY
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/369761
作者单位	[Tabari, Hossein; Hosseinzadehtalaei, Parisa; Willems, Patrick] Katholieke Univ Leuven, Dept Civil Engn, Hydraul Sect, Leuven, Belgium; [AghaKouchak, Amir] Univ Calif Irvine, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Irvine, CA 92717 USA; [AghaKouchak, Amir] Univ Calif Irvine, Dept Earth Syst Sci, Irvine, CA 92717 USA; [Willems, Patrick] Vrije Univ Brussel, Dept Hydrol & Hydraul Engn, Brussels, Belgium
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Tabari, Hossein,Hosseinzadehtalaei, Parisa,AghaKouchak, Amir,et al. Latitudinal heterogeneity and hotspots of uncertainty in projected extreme precipitation[J],2019,14(12).
APA	Tabari, Hossein,Hosseinzadehtalaei, Parisa,AghaKouchak, Amir,&Willems, Patrick.(2019).Latitudinal heterogeneity and hotspots of uncertainty in projected extreme precipitation.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,14(12).
MLA	Tabari, Hossein,et al."Latitudinal heterogeneity and hotspots of uncertainty in projected extreme precipitation".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 14.12(2019).