干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Quantitative assessment of precipitation changes under CMIP5 RCP scenarios over the northern sub-Himalayan region of Pakistan

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DOI	10.1007/s10668-019-00548-5
	Quantitative assessment of precipitation changes under CMIP5 RCP scenarios over the northern sub-Himalayan region of Pakistan
	Ahmed, Kamal; Iqbal, Zafar; Khan, Najeebullah; Rasheed, Balach; Nawaz, Nadeem; Malik, Irfan; Noor, Mohammad
通讯作者	Ahmed, K (corresponding author), Univ Teknol Malaysia UTM, Fac Engn, Sch Civil Engn, Johor Baharu 81310, Malaysia. ; Ahmed, K (corresponding author), Lasbela Univ Agr Water & Marine Sci, Dept Water Resource Management, Balochistan, Pakistan.
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY
ISSN	1387-585X
EISSN	1573-2975
出版年	2020
卷号	22 期号:8 页码:7831-7845
英文摘要	Modelling the probable effect of global warming on precipitation over the northern sub-Himalayan region is very important to ensure sustainable water supply for Pakistan. The aim of the study is to develop statistical downscaling models for the projection of precipitation using the outputs of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global circulation models and using future scenarios. The models were developed considering the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre precipitation data as model predictands. The downscaling models were developed using non-local model output statistics approach based on support vector machine (SVM). Random Forest was applied to formulate multimodal ensemble (MME) for the projection of precipitation. The accuracy of models was judged using the percentage of bias, normalized root mean square error, and the modified index of agreement (md). Results showed that the SVM downscaling model simulated the temporal and spatial distributions of historical precipitation with high skills. The MME showed variations in the range of - 12.68% to 6.31%, - 9.61% to 3.45%, - 8.70% to 9.15%, and - 9.40% to 5.47% for RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. The spatial pattern of annual mean rainfall of MME revealed an expansion of high rainfall area, especially in 2070-2099 under all scenarios.
英文关键词	Climate change projections General circulation models Statistical downscaling Northern Pakistan
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000575664000001
WOS关键词	SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINE ; SIMULATED PRECIPITATION ; STATISTICAL-METHODS ; TEMPORAL-CHANGES ; CLIMATE MODELS ; RIVER-BASIN ; ARID REGION ; TEMPERATURE ; RAINFALL ; SELECTION
WOS类目	Green & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/369261
作者单位	[Ahmed, Kamal; Iqbal, Zafar; Khan, Najeebullah; Noor, Mohammad] Univ Teknol Malaysia UTM, Fac Engn, Sch Civil Engn, Johor Baharu 81310, Malaysia; [Ahmed, Kamal; Nawaz, Nadeem; Malik, Irfan] Lasbela Univ Agr Water & Marine Sci, Dept Water Resource Management, Balochistan, Pakistan; [Rasheed, Balach] Lasbela Univ Agr Water & Marine Sci, Fac Management & Social Sci, Balochistan, Pakistan
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Ahmed, Kamal,Iqbal, Zafar,Khan, Najeebullah,et al. Quantitative assessment of precipitation changes under CMIP5 RCP scenarios over the northern sub-Himalayan region of Pakistan[J],2020,22(8):7831-7845.
APA	Ahmed, Kamal.,Iqbal, Zafar.,Khan, Najeebullah.,Rasheed, Balach.,Nawaz, Nadeem.,...&Noor, Mohammad.(2020).Quantitative assessment of precipitation changes under CMIP5 RCP scenarios over the northern sub-Himalayan region of Pakistan.ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY,22(8),7831-7845.
MLA	Ahmed, Kamal,et al."Quantitative assessment of precipitation changes under CMIP5 RCP scenarios over the northern sub-Himalayan region of Pakistan".ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY 22.8(2020):7831-7845.