Arid
DOI10.1007/s10668-019-00548-5
Quantitative assessment of precipitation changes under CMIP5 RCP scenarios over the northern sub-Himalayan region of Pakistan
Ahmed, Kamal; Iqbal, Zafar; Khan, Najeebullah; Rasheed, Balach; Nawaz, Nadeem; Malik, Irfan; Noor, Mohammad
通讯作者Ahmed, K (corresponding author), Univ Teknol Malaysia UTM, Fac Engn, Sch Civil Engn, Johor Baharu 81310, Malaysia. ; Ahmed, K (corresponding author), Lasbela Univ Agr Water & Marine Sci, Dept Water Resource Management, Balochistan, Pakistan.
来源期刊ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY
ISSN1387-585X
EISSN1573-2975
出版年2020
卷号22期号:8页码:7831-7845
英文摘要Modelling the probable effect of global warming on precipitation over the northern sub-Himalayan region is very important to ensure sustainable water supply for Pakistan. The aim of the study is to develop statistical downscaling models for the projection of precipitation using the outputs of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global circulation models and using future scenarios. The models were developed considering the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre precipitation data as model predictands. The downscaling models were developed using non-local model output statistics approach based on support vector machine (SVM). Random Forest was applied to formulate multimodal ensemble (MME) for the projection of precipitation. The accuracy of models was judged using the percentage of bias, normalized root mean square error, and the modified index of agreement (md). Results showed that the SVM downscaling model simulated the temporal and spatial distributions of historical precipitation with high skills. The MME showed variations in the range of - 12.68% to 6.31%, - 9.61% to 3.45%, - 8.70% to 9.15%, and - 9.40% to 5.47% for RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. The spatial pattern of annual mean rainfall of MME revealed an expansion of high rainfall area, especially in 2070-2099 under all scenarios.
英文关键词Climate change projections General circulation models Statistical downscaling Northern Pakistan
类型Article
语种英语
收录类别SCI-E
WOS记录号WOS:000575664000001
WOS关键词SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINE ; SIMULATED PRECIPITATION ; STATISTICAL-METHODS ; TEMPORAL-CHANGES ; CLIMATE MODELS ; RIVER-BASIN ; ARID REGION ; TEMPERATURE ; RAINFALL ; SELECTION
WOS类目Green & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型期刊论文
条目标识符http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/369261
作者单位[Ahmed, Kamal; Iqbal, Zafar; Khan, Najeebullah; Noor, Mohammad] Univ Teknol Malaysia UTM, Fac Engn, Sch Civil Engn, Johor Baharu 81310, Malaysia; [Ahmed, Kamal; Nawaz, Nadeem; Malik, Irfan] Lasbela Univ Agr Water & Marine Sci, Dept Water Resource Management, Balochistan, Pakistan; [Rasheed, Balach] Lasbela Univ Agr Water & Marine Sci, Fac Management & Social Sci, Balochistan, Pakistan
推荐引用方式
GB/T 7714
Ahmed, Kamal,Iqbal, Zafar,Khan, Najeebullah,et al. Quantitative assessment of precipitation changes under CMIP5 RCP scenarios over the northern sub-Himalayan region of Pakistan[J],2020,22(8):7831-7845.
APA Ahmed, Kamal.,Iqbal, Zafar.,Khan, Najeebullah.,Rasheed, Balach.,Nawaz, Nadeem.,...&Noor, Mohammad.(2020).Quantitative assessment of precipitation changes under CMIP5 RCP scenarios over the northern sub-Himalayan region of Pakistan.ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY,22(8),7831-7845.
MLA Ahmed, Kamal,et al."Quantitative assessment of precipitation changes under CMIP5 RCP scenarios over the northern sub-Himalayan region of Pakistan".ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY 22.8(2020):7831-7845.
条目包含的文件
条目无相关文件。
个性服务
推荐该条目
保存到收藏夹
导出为Endnote文件
谷歌学术
谷歌学术中相似的文章
[Ahmed, Kamal]的文章
[Iqbal, Zafar]的文章
[Khan, Najeebullah]的文章
百度学术
百度学术中相似的文章
[Ahmed, Kamal]的文章
[Iqbal, Zafar]的文章
[Khan, Najeebullah]的文章
必应学术
必应学术中相似的文章
[Ahmed, Kamal]的文章
[Iqbal, Zafar]的文章
[Khan, Najeebullah]的文章
相关权益政策
暂无数据
收藏/分享

除非特别说明,本系统中所有内容都受版权保护,并保留所有权利。