Knowledge Resource Center for Ecological Environment in Arid Area
DOI | 10.1007/s10668-019-00548-5 |
Quantitative assessment of precipitation changes under CMIP5 RCP scenarios over the northern sub-Himalayan region of Pakistan | |
Ahmed, Kamal; Iqbal, Zafar; Khan, Najeebullah; Rasheed, Balach; Nawaz, Nadeem; Malik, Irfan; Noor, Mohammad | |
通讯作者 | Ahmed, K (corresponding author), Univ Teknol Malaysia UTM, Fac Engn, Sch Civil Engn, Johor Baharu 81310, Malaysia. ; Ahmed, K (corresponding author), Lasbela Univ Agr Water & Marine Sci, Dept Water Resource Management, Balochistan, Pakistan. |
来源期刊 | ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY
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ISSN | 1387-585X |
EISSN | 1573-2975 |
出版年 | 2020 |
卷号 | 22期号:8页码:7831-7845 |
英文摘要 | Modelling the probable effect of global warming on precipitation over the northern sub-Himalayan region is very important to ensure sustainable water supply for Pakistan. The aim of the study is to develop statistical downscaling models for the projection of precipitation using the outputs of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 global circulation models and using future scenarios. The models were developed considering the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre precipitation data as model predictands. The downscaling models were developed using non-local model output statistics approach based on support vector machine (SVM). Random Forest was applied to formulate multimodal ensemble (MME) for the projection of precipitation. The accuracy of models was judged using the percentage of bias, normalized root mean square error, and the modified index of agreement (md). Results showed that the SVM downscaling model simulated the temporal and spatial distributions of historical precipitation with high skills. The MME showed variations in the range of - 12.68% to 6.31%, - 9.61% to 3.45%, - 8.70% to 9.15%, and - 9.40% to 5.47% for RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. The spatial pattern of annual mean rainfall of MME revealed an expansion of high rainfall area, especially in 2070-2099 under all scenarios. |
英文关键词 | Climate change projections General circulation models Statistical downscaling Northern Pakistan |
类型 | Article |
语种 | 英语 |
收录类别 | SCI-E |
WOS记录号 | WOS:000575664000001 |
WOS关键词 | SUPPORT VECTOR MACHINE ; SIMULATED PRECIPITATION ; STATISTICAL-METHODS ; TEMPORAL-CHANGES ; CLIMATE MODELS ; RIVER-BASIN ; ARID REGION ; TEMPERATURE ; RAINFALL ; SELECTION |
WOS类目 | Green & Sustainable Science & Technology ; Environmental Sciences |
WOS研究方向 | Science & Technology - Other Topics ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology |
资源类型 | 期刊论文 |
条目标识符 | http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/369261 |
作者单位 | [Ahmed, Kamal; Iqbal, Zafar; Khan, Najeebullah; Noor, Mohammad] Univ Teknol Malaysia UTM, Fac Engn, Sch Civil Engn, Johor Baharu 81310, Malaysia; [Ahmed, Kamal; Nawaz, Nadeem; Malik, Irfan] Lasbela Univ Agr Water & Marine Sci, Dept Water Resource Management, Balochistan, Pakistan; [Rasheed, Balach] Lasbela Univ Agr Water & Marine Sci, Fac Management & Social Sci, Balochistan, Pakistan |
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714 | Ahmed, Kamal,Iqbal, Zafar,Khan, Najeebullah,et al. Quantitative assessment of precipitation changes under CMIP5 RCP scenarios over the northern sub-Himalayan region of Pakistan[J],2020,22(8):7831-7845. |
APA | Ahmed, Kamal.,Iqbal, Zafar.,Khan, Najeebullah.,Rasheed, Balach.,Nawaz, Nadeem.,...&Noor, Mohammad.(2020).Quantitative assessment of precipitation changes under CMIP5 RCP scenarios over the northern sub-Himalayan region of Pakistan.ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY,22(8),7831-7845. |
MLA | Ahmed, Kamal,et al."Quantitative assessment of precipitation changes under CMIP5 RCP scenarios over the northern sub-Himalayan region of Pakistan".ENVIRONMENT DEVELOPMENT AND SUSTAINABILITY 22.8(2020):7831-7845. |
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