干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Evaluation of historical CMIP6 model simulations and future projections of temperature and precipitation in Paraguay

Arid

DOI	10.1007/s10584-021-03012-4
	Evaluation of historical CMIP6 model simulations and future projections of temperature and precipitation in Paraguay
	Lovino, Miguel A.; Josefina Pierrestegui, Maria; Muller, Omar, V; Berbery, Ernesto Hugo; Muller, Gabriela, V; Pasten, Max
通讯作者	Lovino, MA (corresponding author), Univ Nacl Litoral, Fac Ingn & Ciencias Hidr, CEVARCAM, Consejo Nacl Invest Cient & Tecn CONICET, RA-3000 Santa Fe, Argentina.
来源期刊	CLIMATIC CHANGE
ISSN	0165-0009
EISSN	1573-1480
出版年	2021
卷号	164 期号:3-4
英文摘要	This study evaluates the ability of 19 models of CMIP phase 6 (CMIP6) to simulate Paraguay's climate features. Historical multi-member simulations of single models and their multi-model ensembles are bias-corrected and evaluated with statistical metrics. Future projections of precipitation and temperature are generated with the ensembles for three integrated scenarios of socio-economic development and greenhouse gas emissions (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5). The 19 models simulate well the observed mean temperature. The bias-corrected multi-model ensemble reaches the highest skill scores and accurately reproduces the mean spatial field and annual cycle. The bias-corrected multi-model ensemble of precipitation represents the annual cycle weakly, missing the sharp onset and decay of the South American Monsoon. Some individual models and the multi-model ensemble correctly reproduce the west-east gradient, although they underestimate its pronounced spatial variability. Ensembles of future simulations project that by 2100, the annual mean temperature will increase for the three scenarios. On average, the increases are almost 1.7 degrees C in the sustainable development and low emissions scenario (SSP1-2.6), 3 degrees C in the middle-of-the-road development and medium emissions scenario (SSP2-4.5), and 5.5 degrees C in the fossil-fueled development and high emissions scenario (SSP5-8.5). Models project a slight decrease in annual precipitation towards the northwest (less than 50 mm) and an increase towards the southeast (more than 200 mm). Paraguay's humid eastern part is projected to have a small growth in temperature and an increase in precipitation. In contrast, the western arid Chaco region would experience a substantial increase in temperature, while rainfall would slightly decrease.
英文关键词	CMIP6 Climate change Temperature Precipitation Future projections
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	Green Submitted
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000620522600001
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/369007
作者单位	[Lovino, Miguel A.; Josefina Pierrestegui, Maria; Muller, Omar, V; Muller, Gabriela, V] Univ Nacl Litoral, Fac Ingn & Ciencias Hidr, CEVARCAM, Consejo Nacl Invest Cient & Tecn CONICET, RA-3000 Santa Fe, Argentina; [Berbery, Ernesto Hugo] Univ Maryland, Earth Syst Sci Interdisciplinary Ctr, Cooperat Inst Satellite Earth Syst Studies CISESS, College Pk, MD 20742 USA; [Pasten, Max] Univ Nacl Asunc, Fac Politecn, Direcc Meteorol & Hidrol, San Lorenzo, Paraguay
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Lovino, Miguel A.,Josefina Pierrestegui, Maria,Muller, Omar, V,et al. Evaluation of historical CMIP6 model simulations and future projections of temperature and precipitation in Paraguay[J],2021,164(3-4).
APA	Lovino, Miguel A.,Josefina Pierrestegui, Maria,Muller, Omar, V,Berbery, Ernesto Hugo,Muller, Gabriela, V,&Pasten, Max.(2021).Evaluation of historical CMIP6 model simulations and future projections of temperature and precipitation in Paraguay.CLIMATIC CHANGE,164(3-4).
MLA	Lovino, Miguel A.,et al."Evaluation of historical CMIP6 model simulations and future projections of temperature and precipitation in Paraguay".CLIMATIC CHANGE 164.3-4(2021).