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DOI	10.1088/1748-9326/abdb5b
	Risk and vulnerability of Mongolian grasslands under climate change
	Nandintsetseg, Banzragch; Boldgiv, Bazartseren; Chang, Jinfeng; Ciais, Philippe; Davaanyam, Enkhbaatar; Batbold, Altangerel; Bat-Oyun, Tserenpurev; Stenseth, Nils Chr.
通讯作者	Nandintsetseg, B (corresponding author), Natl Univ Mongolia, Sch Arts & Sci, Dept Biol, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia. ; Nandintsetseg, B (corresponding author), Informat & Res Inst Meteorol Hydrol & Environm, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia.
来源期刊	ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN	1748-9326
出版年	2021
卷号	16 期号:3
英文摘要	Climate change is projected to increase the aridity of semi-arid ecosystems, including Mongolian grasslands (MG), which provide ecosystem services that support food supply and pastoralist lifestyle. Here, we conducted a grid-scale (0.5 degrees x 0.5 degrees) probabilistic risk assessment of MG under climate change for 40 years (1976-2015) based on probability theory. We evaluated changes of risk (impacts) and vulnerability of MG to drought between the recent two decades R20 = 1996-2015 and the previous two decades P20 = 1976-1995. The risk is quantified as the product of the probability of hazardous drought and ecosystem vulnerability. The probability of hazardous drought is defined from the Standardized Precipitation-Evapotranspiration Index. Vulnerability is defined as the expected differences of key ecosystem variables between years with and without hazardous conditions. The ecosystem variables are productivity (peak aboveground biomass, net primary productivity, and leaf area index) and root-zone plant-available soil moisture, simulated with a process-based vegetation model Organizing Carbon and Hydrology in Dynamic Ecosystems-Grassland Management validated with field observations of biomass and soil moisture. Results reveal that MG experienced more frequent hazardous droughts with rapid warming and slight drying during R20 aggravated by ever-increasing grazing intensity (34% compared to P20), which resulted in a reduction in soil water availability and grassland productivity, particularly in northeastern areas (20%-65%). The risk of drought to productivity increased by 10% between P20 and R20 over extended areas, particularly in northcentral and northeast Mongolia. The increase in the risk to MG was mainly caused by climate change-induced increase in the probability of hazardous drought and, to a lesser extent, by the increasing vulnerability. Recent droughts modify the risk to grasslands, particularly in northcentral and northeast Mongolia, suggesting that these regions need strategic management for both adaptation and ecosystem conservation to cope with climate change impacts.
英文关键词	drought ecosystem productivity Mongolian grasslands climate change
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold, Green Published, Green Accepted
收录类别	SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000621881000001
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology ; Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/368992
作者单位	[Nandintsetseg, Banzragch; Boldgiv, Bazartseren] Natl Univ Mongolia, Sch Arts & Sci, Dept Biol, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia; [Nandintsetseg, Banzragch; Davaanyam, Enkhbaatar; Batbold, Altangerel; Bat-Oyun, Tserenpurev] Informat & Res Inst Meteorol Hydrol & Environm, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia; [Chang, Jinfeng] Zhejiang Univ, Coll Environm & Resource Sci, Hangzhou, Peoples R China; [Chang, Jinfeng] Int Inst Appl Syst Anal, Ecosyst Serv & Management Program, Laxenburg, Austria; [Ciais, Philippe] CEA CNRS UVSQ, UMR8212, Lab Sci Climate & Environm, Gif Sur Yvette, France; [Stenseth, Nils Chr.] Univ Oslo, Dept Biosci, Ctr Ecol & Evolutionary Synth, Oslo, Norway
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Nandintsetseg, Banzragch,Boldgiv, Bazartseren,Chang, Jinfeng,et al. Risk and vulnerability of Mongolian grasslands under climate change[J],2021,16(3).
APA	Nandintsetseg, Banzragch.,Boldgiv, Bazartseren.,Chang, Jinfeng.,Ciais, Philippe.,Davaanyam, Enkhbaatar.,...&Stenseth, Nils Chr..(2021).Risk and vulnerability of Mongolian grasslands under climate change.ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS,16(3).
MLA	Nandintsetseg, Banzragch,et al."Risk and vulnerability of Mongolian grasslands under climate change".ENVIRONMENTAL RESEARCH LETTERS 16.3(2021).