干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Global Changes in 20-Year, 50-Year, and 100-Year River Floods

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DOI	10.1029/2020GL091824
	Global Changes in 20-Year, 50-Year, and 100-Year River Floods
	Slater, L.; Villarini, G.; Archfield, S.; Faulkner, D.; Lamb, R.; Khouakhi, A.; Yin, J.
通讯作者	Slater, L (corresponding author), Univ Oxford, Sch Geog & Environm, Oxford, England.
来源期刊	GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS
ISSN	0094-8276
EISSN	1944-8007
出版年	2021
卷号	48 期号:6
英文摘要	Concepts like the 100-year flood event can be misleading if they are not updated to reflect significant changes over time. Here, we model observed annual maximum daily streamflow using a nonstationary approach to provide the first global picture of changes in: (a) the magnitudes of the 20-, 50-, and 100-year floods (i.e., flows of a given exceedance probability in each year); (b) the return periods of the 20-, 50-, and 100-year floods, as assessed in 1970 (i.e., flows of a fixed magnitude); and (c) corresponding flood probabilities. Empirically, we find the 20-/50-year floods have mostly increased in temperate climate zones, but decreased in arid, tropical, polar, and cold zones. In contrast, 100-year floods have mostly decreased in arid/temperate zones and exhibit mixed trends in cold zones, but results are influenced by the small number of stations with long records, and highlight the need for continued updating of hazard assessments.
英文关键词	floods global hazard nonstationarity probabilities return periods
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	Green Accepted, hybrid, Green Published
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000635209100005
WOS关键词	FREQUENCY-ANALYSIS ; CLIMATE ; STATIONARITY ; TRENDS ; PEAKS
WOS类目	Geosciences, Multidisciplinary
WOS研究方向	Geology
来源机构	United States Geological Survey ; University of Oxford
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/368933
作者单位	[Slater, L.] Univ Oxford, Sch Geog & Environm, Oxford, England; [Villarini, G.] Univ Iowa, IIHR Hydrosci & Engn, Iowa City, IA USA; [Archfield, S.] US Geol Survey, 959 Natl Ctr, Reston, VA 22092 USA; [Faulkner, D.] JBA Consulting, Skipton, England; [Lamb, R.] JBA Trust, Skipton, England; [Lamb, R.] Univ Lancaster, Lancaster Environm Ctr, Lancaster, England; [Khouakhi, A.] Cranfield Univ, Ctr Environm & Agr Informat, Sch Water Energy & Environm, Cranfield, Beds, England; [Yin, J.] Wuhan Univ, State Key Lab Water Resources & Hydropower Engn S, Wuhan, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Slater, L.,Villarini, G.,Archfield, S.,et al. Global Changes in 20-Year, 50-Year, and 100-Year River Floods[J]. United States Geological Survey, University of Oxford,2021,48(6).
APA	Slater, L..,Villarini, G..,Archfield, S..,Faulkner, D..,Lamb, R..,...&Yin, J..(2021).Global Changes in 20-Year, 50-Year, and 100-Year River Floods.GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS,48(6).
MLA	Slater, L.,et al."Global Changes in 20-Year, 50-Year, and 100-Year River Floods".GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS 48.6(2021).