干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Assessment of CMIP6 in simulating precipitation over arid Central Asia

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.atmosres.2021.105451
	Assessment of CMIP6 in simulating precipitation over arid Central Asia
	Guo, Hao; Bao, Anming; Chen, Tao; Zheng, Guoxiong; Wang, Yunqian; Jiang, Liangliang; De Maeyer, Philippe
通讯作者	Bao, AM (corresponding author), Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, State Key Lab Desert & Oasis Ecol, Urumqi 830011, Peoples R China.
来源期刊	ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH
ISSN	0169-8095
EISSN	1873-2895
出版年	2021
卷号	252
英文摘要	Precipitation outputs from 30 Global Circulation Models (GCMs) of the Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) were evaluated from 1951 to 2014 over six climate zones in arid Central Asia (ACA) using the Climate Research Unit TS 4.04 (CRU) precipitation datasets as reference. An evaluation framework was constructed taking into account metrics of annual precipitation patterns, annual cycle precipitation statistics, categorical validation and long-term precipitation trend. The performance of GCMs vary from region to region. Compared to CRU, the 30 selected GCMs present considerable wet bias in the Southern Xinjiang (SX) and Hexi Corridor (HC) regions which can be larger than 100%. The simulated precipitation from most GCMs shows a consistent annual cycle shape and closer with that of observations in the western ACA, but fails to capture precipitation peak in NK and NX regions. Compared to NK, CD, TM and NX, all models and the full model ensemble have limited ability in reproducing the Probability Density Function (PDF) of observations over SX and HC. Most GCMs show limited competence to reproduce the long-term precipitation trend with high wet bias over the Hexi Corridor. Based on the comprehensive performance ranking, it is discovered that CESM2, CESM2-FV2, CESM2-WACCM and CESM2-WACCM-FV2 from NCAR, ACCESS-CM2 from CSIRO and CanESM5 from Canadian Centre for Climate Modeling demonstrate better performances across ACA. The ensemble of 30 selected GCMs has limited ability to accurately simulate precipitation according to the above four types of metrics. The results of this paper may provide scientific guidance to CMIP6 end-users when selecting the most suitable GCMs for their specific applications over ACA.
英文关键词	Performance evaluation Precipitation CMIP6 General circulation models Arid Central Asia
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000620262700004
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
来源机构	中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/368855
作者单位	[Guo, Hao; Wang, Yunqian] Qufu Normal Univ, Sch Geog & Tourism, Rizhao 276825, Peoples R China; [Guo, Hao; Wang, Yunqian] Qufu Normal Univ, Rizhao Key Lab Terr Spatial Planning & Ecol Const, Rizhao 276825, Peoples R China; [Bao, Anming; Zheng, Guoxiong; De Maeyer, Philippe] Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, State Key Lab Desert & Oasis Ecol, Urumqi 830011, Peoples R China; [Bao, Anming] CAS HEC, China Pakistan Joint Res Ctr Earth Sci, Islamabad 45320, Pakistan; [Chen, Tao] Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Geog & Planning, Guangzhou 510275, Guangdong, Peoples R China; [Jiang, Liangliang] Chongqing Normal Univ, Sch Geog & Tourism Sci, Chongqing 401331, Peoples R China; [De Maeyer, Philippe] Univ Ghent, Dept Geog, B-9000 Ghent, Belgium
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Guo, Hao,Bao, Anming,Chen, Tao,et al. Assessment of CMIP6 in simulating precipitation over arid Central Asia[J]. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,2021,252.
APA	Guo, Hao.,Bao, Anming.,Chen, Tao.,Zheng, Guoxiong.,Wang, Yunqian.,...&De Maeyer, Philippe.(2021).Assessment of CMIP6 in simulating precipitation over arid Central Asia.ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH,252.
MLA	Guo, Hao,et al."Assessment of CMIP6 in simulating precipitation over arid Central Asia".ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH 252(2021).