干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Modeling the potential impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies on groundnut production in India

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.145996
	Modeling the potential impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies on groundnut production in India
	Kadiyala, M. D. M.; Nedumaran, Swamikannu; Padmanabhan, Jyosthnaa; Gumma, Murali Krishna; Gummadi, Sridhar; Srigiri, Srinivas Reddy; Robertson, Richard; Whitbread, Anthony
通讯作者	Kadiyala, MDM (corresponding author), Acharya NG Ranga Agr Univ, Guntur, Andhra Pradesh, India.
来源期刊	SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
ISSN	0048-9697
EISSN	1879-1026
出版年	2021
卷号	776
英文摘要	Groundnut is one of the significant sources of oil, food, and fodder in India. It is grown in marginal arid and semiarid agro-ecosystems with wide yield fluctuations due to spatial variability of rainfall and soil. Climate change, which is predicted to increase the intra-and inter-annual rainfall variability will further constrain the groundnut economy in India besides the global and domestic economic, social and policy changes. Through this study we aim to examine the biophysical and social economic impacts of climate change on groundnut production and prices to provide a comprehensive analysis of how agriculture and the food system will be affected. Using projected climate data for India, we estimated the biophysical impacts of climate change on groundnut during mid-century using representative concentration pathway (RCP 8.5) scenario. We examined the impacts of changes in population and income besides environmental factors on groundnut productivity. This is to highlight the importance of holistic assessment of biophysical and socioeconomic factors to better understand climate change impacts. Modelled projections show that by 2050, climate change under an optimistic scenario will result in & minus;2.3 to 43.2% change in groundnut yields across various regions in India when climate alone was factored in. But the change in groundnut yields ranged from & minus;0.9% to 16.2% when economic (population and income) and market variables (elasticities, trade, etc.) were also considered. Similarly, under pessimistic climate change scenario, the percent change in groundnut yields would be & minus;33.7 to 3.4 with only the climate factored in and & minus;11.2 to 4.3 with the additional economic and market variables included. This indicates the sensitivity of climate change impacts to differences in socioeconomic factors. This study highlights the need to take into account market effects to gain a holistic understanding of how economic and environmental factors impact agricultural food systems and economies. (c) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. This is an open access article under the CC BY license (http:// creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
英文关键词	Groundnut DSSAT Climate change Adaptation Spatial modeling
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	hybrid, Green Published, Green Accepted
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000647607600014
WOS关键词	CARBON-DIOXIDE ; SOUTH-ASIA ; YIELD ; SYSTEM ; TIME ; GROWTH ; AREAS
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
来源机构	International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/368680
作者单位	[Kadiyala, M. D. M.] Acharya NG Ranga Agr Univ, Guntur, Andhra Pradesh, India; [Kadiyala, M. D. M.; Nedumaran, Swamikannu; Padmanabhan, Jyosthnaa; Whitbread, Anthony] Int Crops Res Inst Semi Arid Trop, Patancheru 502324, Andhra Pradesh, India; [Robertson, Richard] Int Food Policy Res Inst, 2033 K St NW, Washington, DC 20006 USA; [Srigiri, Srinivas Reddy] German Dev Inst, Bonn, Germany; [Gummadi, Sridhar] Int Rice Res Inst, Los Banos, Philippines
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Kadiyala, M. D. M.,Nedumaran, Swamikannu,Padmanabhan, Jyosthnaa,et al. Modeling the potential impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies on groundnut production in India[J]. International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics,2021,776.
APA	Kadiyala, M. D. M..,Nedumaran, Swamikannu.,Padmanabhan, Jyosthnaa.,Gumma, Murali Krishna.,Gummadi, Sridhar.,...&Whitbread, Anthony.(2021).Modeling the potential impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies on groundnut production in India.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,776.
MLA	Kadiyala, M. D. M.,et al."Modeling the potential impacts of climate change and adaptation strategies on groundnut production in India".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 776(2021).