干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Intensification of extreme precipitation in arid Central Asia

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.jhydrol.2020.125760
	Intensification of extreme precipitation in arid Central Asia
	Yao, Junqiang; Chen, Yaning; Chen, Jing; Zhao, Yong; Tuoliewubieke, Dilinuer; Li, Jiangang; Yang, Lianmei; Mao, Weiyi
通讯作者	Yao, JQ (corresponding author), China Meteorol Adm, Inst Desert Meteorol, 327 Jianguo Rd, Urumqi 830002, Peoples R China. ; Chen, YN (corresponding author), Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, State Key Lab Desert & Oasis Ecol, Urumqi, Peoples R China.
来源期刊	JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY
ISSN	0022-1694
EISSN	1879-2707
出版年	2021
卷号	598
英文摘要	Changes in total and extreme precipitation are expected to intensify under climate warming. As Central Asia is among the driest regions in the world, more information is needed regarding the past and potential future changes in extreme precipitation in this region. In this study, we investigated changes in total and extreme precipitation in Central Asia based on observational records and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) model simulations. The results showed that all extreme precipitation-related indices except for consecutive dry days (CDD) experienced an increasing trend during 1936-2005. The annual total wet-day precipitation (PRCPTOT), daily intensity index (SDII), annual maximum 1- or 5-day precipitation amount (Rx1day and Rx5day), total annual number of days with precipitation exceeding heavy precipitation or very heavy precipitation thresholds (R10 and R20), and CDD were statistically robust. Generally, the statistically significant increasing trends are more pronounced in the wetter sub-regions, i.e. Northern and Southeastern Central Asia. Based on the CMIP5 model simulations, the PRCPTOT, Rx1day, and CDD in Central Asia are projected to increase robustly during 2006-2100 under representative concentration pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5; higher RCPs had higher rates of extreme precipitation and lower signal-to-noise ratios (SNRs). In addition, a considerable intensification of extreme precipitation and slight drought is predicted for the late 21st century (2071-2100). In Central Asia, the PRCPTOT, Rx1day, and CDD had an approximately linear relationship with global warming rates, with rates of 4.95%/K, 5.79%/K, and 2.79%/K, respectively, under RCP 4.5. The response rates were slightly lower under RCP 8.5 than under RCP 4.5 for these indices. The increase in total precipitation was mainly due to the intensification of extreme precipitation and a concomitant weakening of light precipitation, with a simultaneous overcompensation of increased evaporation due to global warming. Thus, our results suggest that total and extreme precipitation will intensify in Central Asia under a warming climate. Since increased extreme precipitation may lead to a heightened risk of flooding, water availability is predicted to remain limited over Central Asia.
英文关键词	Extreme precipitation Central Asia Precipitation
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000661813200002
WOS关键词	FUTURE CHANGES ; SPATIOTEMPORAL CHARACTERISTICS ; HYDROLOGICAL CYCLE ; MONITORING CHANGES ; CLIMATE EXTREMES ; TEMPERATURE ; NORTHWEST ; INDEXES ; TRENDS ; CHINA
WOS类目	Engineering, Civil ; Geosciences, Multidisciplinary ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Engineering ; Geology ; Water Resources
来源机构	中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/368661
作者单位	[Yao, Junqiang; Chen, Jing; Tuoliewubieke, Dilinuer; Li, Jiangang; Yang, Lianmei; Mao, Weiyi] China Meteorol Adm, Inst Desert Meteorol, 327 Jianguo Rd, Urumqi 830002, Peoples R China; [Chen, Yaning] Chinese Acad Sci, Xinjiang Inst Ecol & Geog, State Key Lab Desert & Oasis Ecol, Urumqi, Peoples R China; [Zhao, Yong] Chengdu Univ Informat Technol, Sch Atmospher Sci, Chengdu, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yao, Junqiang,Chen, Yaning,Chen, Jing,et al. Intensification of extreme precipitation in arid Central Asia[J]. 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所,2021,598.
APA	Yao, Junqiang.,Chen, Yaning.,Chen, Jing.,Zhao, Yong.,Tuoliewubieke, Dilinuer.,...&Mao, Weiyi.(2021).Intensification of extreme precipitation in arid Central Asia.JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY,598.
MLA	Yao, Junqiang,et al."Intensification of extreme precipitation in arid Central Asia".JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY 598(2021).