干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Past and future drought trends, duration, and frequency in the semi-arid Urmia Lake Basin under a changing climate

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DOI	10.1002/met.2009
	Past and future drought trends, duration, and frequency in the semi-arid Urmia Lake Basin under a changing climate
	Mirgol, Behnam; Nazari, Meisam; Etedali, Hadi Ramezani; Zamanian, Kazem
通讯作者	Nazari, M (corresponding author), Georg August Univ Gottingen, Div Biogeochem Agroecosyst, D-37073 Gottingen, Germany.
来源期刊	METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS
ISSN	1350-4827
EISSN	1469-8080
出版年	2021
卷号	28 期号:4
英文摘要	Although the Urmia Lake has undergone remarkable drought conditions within the past decades mainly due to climate change, drought studies covering the entire Urmia Lake Basin and all drought aspects are lacking. The present study investigated the spatial and temporal drought conditions in the Urmia Lake Basin for the past (1988-2017) and future (2021-2050 and 2051-2080) periods using five general circulation models (GCMs) under the IPCC (Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change) scenarios RCP 2.6, RCP 4.5, and RCP 8.5. The standardized precipitation index (SPI) and standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index (SPEI) were compared. The SPEI predicted more drought events than the SPI, and it seemed to be a more suitable drought index than the SPI for the basin. In general, the future periods would encounter less drought conditions in terms of significant drought trends and duration than the observed period under all scenarios, but the frequency of quarterly severe drought events in the future periods would be higher than in the observed period. Furthermore, the stations Urmia (western bank) and Tabriz and Maragheh (eastern banks) would face the highest frequency of different types of quarterly drought events in the future periods compared with the observed period. The predicted high frequencies of drought events for the future periods can intensify the current low water level situation of the Urmia Lake, which seriously threatens all types of ecosystems in the basin. Therefore, serious actions need to be taken into account for efficient ecosystem and water resources management in the basin.
英文关键词	drought LARS-WG precipitation SPEI SPI temperature
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000690794400017
WOS关键词	REFERENCE CROP EVAPOTRANSPIRATION ; RIVER-BASIN ; SPATIAL EVOLUTION ; CHANGE IMPACTS ; INDEX SPEI ; PRECIPITATION ; TEMPERATURE ; REGION ; MODEL ; DRY
WOS类目	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
WOS研究方向	Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/368630
作者单位	[Mirgol, Behnam; Etedali, Hadi Ramezani] Imam Khomeini Int Univ, Fac Agr & Nat Resources, Dept Water Engn, Qazvin, Iran; [Nazari, Meisam] Georg August Univ Gottingen, Div Biogeochem Agroecosyst, D-37073 Gottingen, Germany; [Zamanian, Kazem] Georg August Univ Gottingen, Dept Soil Sci Temperate Ecosyst, Gottingen, Germany
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mirgol, Behnam,Nazari, Meisam,Etedali, Hadi Ramezani,et al. Past and future drought trends, duration, and frequency in the semi-arid Urmia Lake Basin under a changing climate[J],2021,28(4).
APA	Mirgol, Behnam,Nazari, Meisam,Etedali, Hadi Ramezani,&Zamanian, Kazem.(2021).Past and future drought trends, duration, and frequency in the semi-arid Urmia Lake Basin under a changing climate.METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS,28(4).
MLA	Mirgol, Behnam,et al."Past and future drought trends, duration, and frequency in the semi-arid Urmia Lake Basin under a changing climate".METEOROLOGICAL APPLICATIONS 28.4(2021).