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DOI	10.1016/j.foreco.2021.119150
	Future habitat suitability for species under climate change - Lessons learned from the strawberry tree case study
	Gerassis, Saki; Albuquerque, M. T. D.; Roque, Natalia; Ribeiro, Silvia; Taboada, Javier; Ribeiro, Maria Margarida
通讯作者	Albuquerque, MTD (corresponding author), Inst Politecn Castelo Branco, Av Pedro Alvares Cabral 12, P-6000084 Castelo Branco, Portugal.
来源期刊	FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT
ISSN	0378-1127
EISSN	1872-7042
出版年	2021
卷号	491
英文摘要	Climate change is already a reality, and habitat loss is affecting relentlessly tree species distributions. The strawberry tree (Arbutus unedo L., Ericaceae) is a Mediterranean evergreen tree used in this article as a case study to evince its expected threatening situation in the upcoming age. This research work seeks to identify the bioclimatic and physiographic variables that have the most impact on the strawberry tree?s spatial distribution in Portugal, acquiring vital knowledge for the design of accurate conservation and afforestation plans for the use and conservation of strawberry tree, working as a guide under a climate change scenario. For that, twenty-one bioclimatic variables, two physiographic attributes (altitude and slope), and the Emberger Index (EI) were used together with 318 observations of strawberry trees, to build a scalable Bayesian procedure, based on machine learning techniques, aimed to assess the species? future habitat evolution through three temporal scenarios: (i) Control Run (1960?1990); (ii) 2050 and (iii) 2070. The results indicate for 2050 a 30% loss of the humid subregion and a 35% increase in the semi-arid sub-region towards the north. In 2070, it is expected a 2% recuperation for the sub-humid area, but an 8% loss of the humid sub-area. Under these extreme climate change conditions, it is anticipated an almost complete loss of habitat for the strawberry tree in the south of Portugal. The expected ecological evolvability may trigger future migration paths and new refuges? settlement in the northern sub-region for the succeeding decades and suggesting after 2070 the possibility of habitat switch and species drifting.
英文关键词	Arbutus unedo Climate change Bayesian Network Habitat suitability Migration Natural refuge
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000694855500007
WOS关键词	ARBUTUS-UNEDO ; GLOBAL CHANGE ; TERRESTRIAL ECOSYSTEMS ; PLANT-RESPONSES ; BIG DATA ; CONSERVATION ; SELECTION ; PHYLOGEOGRAPHY ; POPULATIONS ; PATTERNS
WOS类目	Forestry
WOS研究方向	Forestry
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/368627
作者单位	[Gerassis, Saki; Taboada, Javier] Univ Vigo, Dept Nat Resources & Environm Engn, Vigo 36310, Spain; [Albuquerque, M. T. D.; Roque, Natalia; Ribeiro, Maria Margarida] Inst Politecn Castelo Branco, P-6001909 Castelo Branco, Portugal; [Albuquerque, M. T. D.; Roque, Natalia; Ribeiro, Maria Margarida] QRural Inst Politecn Castelo Branco, P-6001909 Castelo Branco, Portugal; [Albuquerque, M. T. D.; Ribeiro, Maria Margarida] CERNAS Inst Politecn Castelo Branco, P-6001909 Castelo Branco, Portugal; [Ribeiro, Maria Margarida] Univ Lisbon, Forest Res Ctr, Sch Agr, Lisbon, Portugal; [Ribeiro, Silvia] Univ Lisbon, Sch Agr, Landscape Ecol Agr & Food Sci, Lisbon, Portugal; [Albuquerque, M. T. D.] Univ Evora, ICT Inst Ciencias Terra, Evora, Portugal
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Gerassis, Saki,Albuquerque, M. T. D.,Roque, Natalia,et al. Future habitat suitability for species under climate change - Lessons learned from the strawberry tree case study[J],2021,491.
APA	Gerassis, Saki,Albuquerque, M. T. D.,Roque, Natalia,Ribeiro, Silvia,Taboada, Javier,&Ribeiro, Maria Margarida.(2021).Future habitat suitability for species under climate change - Lessons learned from the strawberry tree case study.FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT,491.
MLA	Gerassis, Saki,et al."Future habitat suitability for species under climate change - Lessons learned from the strawberry tree case study".FOREST ECOLOGY AND MANAGEMENT 491(2021).