干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Limited refugia and high velocity range-shifts predicted for bat communities in drought-risk areas of the Northern Hemisphere

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DOI	10.1016/j.gecco.2021.e01608
	Limited refugia and high velocity range-shifts predicted for bat communities in drought-risk areas of the Northern Hemisphere
	Cappelli, Mattia Piccioli; Blakey, Rachel, V; Taylor, Daniel; Flanders, Jon; Badeen, Trish; Butts, Sally; Frick, Winifred F.; Rebelo, Hugo
通讯作者	Blakey, RV (corresponding author), Univ Calif Los Angeles, La Kretz Ctr Calif Conservat Sci, Inst Environm & Sustainabil, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA.
来源期刊	GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND CONSERVATION
EISSN	2351-9894
出版年	2021
卷号	28
英文摘要	Species occupying semi-arid and dry regions around the globe face an uncertain future due to increases in the frequency and severity of droughts. In this study we modelled the po-tential effect of climate change on bat communities within two high-drought risk regions of the world and assessed the magnitude and direction of the predicted shifts in climatic suitability, locating climate change refugia and identifying species at greatest risk of popu-lation declines. To do this, we compared climate suitability models for 43 species using three global climate models and three emissions scenarios for current (1950-2000) and future (2061-2080) climates within two regions where droughts are predicted to increase, the Western Palaearctic and Western North America. Our models predicted an overall reduction in bat richness with future climates. Areas projected to support high species richness in the current climate coincided with greatest predicted species loss and greatest future drought risk. For species with the potential to extend their range, high velocity range shifts would be required to keep pace with these changes, particularly in the Western Palaearctic, where additional barriers to movement include seas and areas of high human population density. Predicted refugial zones were limited and occurred in similar areas across continents (montane and high latitude with some coastal areas). The area of climate suitability was predicted to contract for around half of study species, with nine identified as species of conservation concern due to low overlap between current and future modelled ranges. The best-case scenario for bat diversity in semi-arid and dry regions in the future is likely to be reduced species richness, with many species facing rapid range expansion over challenging landscapes to access climatically suitable areas. Conservation of bats in high drought risk regions will likely depend on protection of identified refugia and networks of water sources, as well as global measures to protect biodiversity and human wellbeing, such as reduction in global carbon emissions. (c) 2021 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier B.V. CC_BY_4.0
英文关键词	Bats Drought Climate change Europe Mediterranean climate North Africa North America Range-shifts Refugia Semi-arid
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000684309900005
WOS关键词	LAND-USE CHANGE ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; DISTRIBUTION MODELS ; GEOGRAPHIC-DISTRIBUTION ; WATER AVAILABILITY ; CONSERVATION ; PATTERNS ; FUTURE ; CHIROPTERA ; MAMMALIA
WOS类目	Biodiversity Conservation ; Ecology
WOS研究方向	Biodiversity & Conservation ; Environmental Sciences & Ecology
来源机构	E18 ; University of California, Los Angeles
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/368575
作者单位	[Cappelli, Mattia Piccioli] Univ Insubria, Dept Theoret & Appl Sci, Guido Tosi Res Grp, Varese, Italy; [Cappelli, Mattia Piccioli; Rebelo, Hugo] Univ Porto, CIBIO InBIO, Campus Agrario Vairao,4485-661 Vairao, P-4485661 Vairao, Portugal; [Blakey, Rachel, V] Univ Calif Los Angeles, La Kretz Ctr Calif Conservat Sci, Inst Environm & Sustainabil, Los Angeles, CA 90095 USA; [Blakey, Rachel, V] Inst Bird Populat, POB 518, Petaluma, CA 94953 USA; [Taylor, Daniel; Flanders, Jon; Badeen, Trish; Frick, Winifred F.] Bat Conservat Int, 500 North Capital Of Texas Highway North, Austin, TX 78746 USA; [Flanders, Jon] Amer Museum Nat Hist, Div Vertebrate Zool Mammal, New York, NY 10024 USA; [Butts, Sally] USDA Forest Serv, Reg 6 Reg Off, Portland, OR 97204 USA; [Butts, Sally] USDI Bur Land Management, Washington, DC 20003 USA; [Frick, Winifred F.] Univ Calif Santa Cruz, Ecol & Evolutionary Biol, Santa Cruz, CA 95060 USA; [Rebelo, Hugo] Univ Lisbon, Sch Agr, CIBIO InBIO, P-1349017 Lisbon, Portugal
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Cappelli, Mattia Piccioli,Blakey, Rachel, V,Taylor, Daniel,et al. Limited refugia and high velocity range-shifts predicted for bat communities in drought-risk areas of the Northern Hemisphere[J]. E18, University of California, Los Angeles,2021,28.
APA	Cappelli, Mattia Piccioli.,Blakey, Rachel, V.,Taylor, Daniel.,Flanders, Jon.,Badeen, Trish.,...&Rebelo, Hugo.(2021).Limited refugia and high velocity range-shifts predicted for bat communities in drought-risk areas of the Northern Hemisphere.GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND CONSERVATION,28.
MLA	Cappelli, Mattia Piccioli,et al."Limited refugia and high velocity range-shifts predicted for bat communities in drought-risk areas of the Northern Hemisphere".GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND CONSERVATION 28(2021).