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DOI	10.1016/j.scitotenv.2021.146703
	Determining and forecasting drought susceptibility in southwestern Iran using multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) coupled with CA-Markov model
	Mokarram, Marzieh; Pourghasemi, Hamid Reza; Hu, Ming; Zhang, Huichun
通讯作者	Zhang, HC (corresponding author), Case Western Reserve Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Cleveland, OH 44106 USA.
来源期刊	SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT
ISSN	0048-9697
EISSN	1879-1026
出版年	2021
卷号	781
英文摘要	Forecasting drought and determining relevant data to predict drought are an important topic for decision-makers and planners. It is critical to predicting drought in the south of Fars province, an important agricultural center in Iran located in arid and semi-arid climates. The purpose of this study was to generate a drought map in 2019 using 12 parameters: altitude, aridity index, erosion, groundwater depth, land use, PET (Potential evapotranspiration), precipitation days, precipitation, slope, soil texture, soil salinity, and distance to river, and predict drought maps in 2030 and 2040 using the cellular automata (CA)-Markov model spatially. The fuzzy method was first used to homogenize the data. Next, by evaluating each parameter, the weight of each parameter was calculated using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), and a map of drought-prone areas was generated. The results of the fuzzy-AHP method showed that the eastern and southeastern regions of the study area were prone to drought. The four most predictive parameters in causing drought, i.e., aridity index, PET, precipitation, and soil texture, were selected using the Best search method and were then chosen as the input to determine drought mapping using the fuzzy and AHP methods. Finally, the CA-Markov model was used to predict future drought maps, and the results showed that in 2030 and 2040 the drought situation in the east and south of the study area would intensify. (C) 2021 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
英文关键词	Drought Fuzzy method AHP method Best search method CA-Markov Southwestern Iran
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E ; SSCI
WOS记录号	WOS:000655621600013
WOS关键词	AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT ; CLIMATE-CHANGE ; RISK-ASSESSMENT ; SOIL-MOISTURE ; VULNERABILITY ; PREDICTION ; INDEX ; ADAPTATION ; INDICATORS ; AFRICA
WOS类目	Environmental Sciences
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/368536
作者单位	[Mokarram, Marzieh] Shiraz Univ, Dept Range & Watershed Management, Coll Agr & Nat Resources Darab, Shiraz, Iran; [Pourghasemi, Hamid Reza] Shiraz Univ, Dept Nat Resources & Environm Engn, Coll Agr, Shiraz, Iran; [Hu, Ming] Cleveland Clin Fdn, Lerner Res Inst, Dept Quantitat Hlth Sci, 9500 Euclid Ave, Cleveland, OH 44195 USA; [Zhang, Huichun] Case Western Reserve Univ, Dept Civil & Environm Engn, Cleveland, OH 44106 USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Mokarram, Marzieh,Pourghasemi, Hamid Reza,Hu, Ming,et al. Determining and forecasting drought susceptibility in southwestern Iran using multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) coupled with CA-Markov model[J],2021,781.
APA	Mokarram, Marzieh,Pourghasemi, Hamid Reza,Hu, Ming,&Zhang, Huichun.(2021).Determining and forecasting drought susceptibility in southwestern Iran using multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) coupled with CA-Markov model.SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT,781.
MLA	Mokarram, Marzieh,et al."Determining and forecasting drought susceptibility in southwestern Iran using multi-criteria decision-making (MCDM) coupled with CA-Markov model".SCIENCE OF THE TOTAL ENVIRONMENT 781(2021).