干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): A Grey Seasonal Index Model for Forecasting Groundwater Depth of Ningxia Plain

Arid

DOI	10.1155/2021/6872538
	A Grey Seasonal Index Model for Forecasting Groundwater Depth of Ningxia Plain
	Yin, Ziqi; Zhang, Kai
通讯作者	Zhang, K (corresponding author), Shandong Univ Finance & Econ, Sch Management Sci & Engn, Jinan, Shandong, Peoples R China. ; Zhang, K (corresponding author), Hebei Univ Engn, Sch Management Engn & Business, Handan, Peoples R China.
来源期刊	DISCRETE DYNAMICS IN NATURE AND SOCIETY
ISSN	1026-0226
EISSN	1607-887X
出版年	2021
卷号	2021
英文摘要	Forecasting the depth of groundwater in arid and semiarid areas is a great challenge because these areas are complex hydrogeological environments and the observational data are limited. To deal with this problem, the grey seasonal index model is proposed. The seasonal characteristics of time series were represented by indicators, and the grey model with fractional-order accumulation was employed to fit and forecast different periodic indicators and long-term trends, respectively. Then, the prediction results of the two were combined together to obtain the prediction results. To verify the model performance, the proposed model is applied to groundwater prediction in Yinchuan Plain. The results show that the fitting error of the proposed model is 2.08%, while for comparison, the fitting error of the grey model of data grouping and Holt-Winters model is 3.94% and 5%, respectively. In the same way, it is concluded that the fitting error of groundwater in Weining Plain by the proposed model is 2.26%. On the whole, the groundwater depth in Ningxia Plain including Yinchuan Plain and Weining Plain will increase further.
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000691082200001
WOS关键词	CHINA ; PREDICTION
WOS类目	Mathematics, Interdisciplinary Applications ; Multidisciplinary Sciences
WOS研究方向	Mathematics ; Science & Technology - Other Topics
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/368522
作者单位	[Yin, Ziqi] Macau Univ Sci & Technol, Fac Informat Technol, Macau, Peoples R China; [Zhang, Kai] Shandong Univ Finance & Econ, Sch Management Sci & Engn, Jinan, Shandong, Peoples R China; [Zhang, Kai] Hebei Univ Engn, Sch Management Engn & Business, Handan, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Yin, Ziqi,Zhang, Kai. A Grey Seasonal Index Model for Forecasting Groundwater Depth of Ningxia Plain[J],2021,2021.
APA	Yin, Ziqi,&Zhang, Kai.(2021).A Grey Seasonal Index Model for Forecasting Groundwater Depth of Ningxia Plain.DISCRETE DYNAMICS IN NATURE AND SOCIETY,2021.
MLA	Yin, Ziqi,et al."A Grey Seasonal Index Model for Forecasting Groundwater Depth of Ningxia Plain".DISCRETE DYNAMICS IN NATURE AND SOCIETY 2021(2021).