干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): Agricultural drought prediction in China based on drought propagation and large-scale drivers

Arid

DOI	10.1016/j.agwat.2021.107028
	Agricultural drought prediction in China based on drought propagation and large-scale drivers
	Zhang, Yu; Hao, Zengchao; Feng, Sifang; Zhang, Xuan; Xu, Yang; Hao, Fanghua
通讯作者	Hao, ZC (corresponding author), Beijing Normal Univ, Coll Water Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China.
来源期刊	AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT
ISSN	0378-3774
EISSN	1873-2283
出版年	2021
卷号	255
英文摘要	Agricultural drought is generally defined as a deficit in soil moisture, and can affect plant growth and crop yields. Accurate prediction of agricultural drought with sufficient lead time can aid agricultural planning and reduce losses in agricultural production. In this study, the meta-Gaussian model was employed to predict agricultural drought (standardized soil moisture index, or SSI) during spring and summer in China based on the initial soil moisture conditions, antecedent meteorological drought (standardized precipitation index, or SPI) and largescale drivers (El Nin similar to o-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO). Monthly precipitation and soil moisture data from Global Land Data Assimilation System, version 2 (GLDAS-2.0) were used to compute the meteorological and agricultural drought indicators. The conditional distribution of agricultural drought given multiple predictors was used for the statistical prediction. The autocorrelation of agricultural drought, the correlation between meteorological drought and agricultural drought, and the correlation between ENSO and agricultural drought were first evaluated to understand the predictors from soil moisture persistence, drought propagation, and largescale drivers. We then employed the conditional distribution to predict agricultural drought over the period from 1948 to 2014, in which contributions of antecedent meteorological drought and large-scale drivers to the prediction performance were evaluated. Results showed that the prediction method performed well in semi-arid and sub-humid regions during spring, but did not perform well in humid regions during summer. In addition, the incorporation of ENSO provided useful predictability for long lead time prediction in certain regions (with significant influence of ENSO). The results obtained from this study can provide useful information for early agricultural drought warning across China.
英文关键词	Drought prediction Agricultural drought Drought propagation GLDAS
类型	Article
语种	英语
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000679334400005
WOS关键词	GLOBAL METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT ; SOIL-MOISTURE ; PROBABILISTIC PREDICTION ; CLIMATE INDEXES ; EL-NINO ; MODEL ; PRECIPITATION ; SIGNALS ; PREDICTABILITY ; STREAMFLOW
WOS类目	Agronomy ; Water Resources
WOS研究方向	Agriculture ; Water Resources
来源机构	北京师范大学
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/368493
作者单位	[Zhang, Yu; Hao, Zengchao; Feng, Sifang; Zhang, Xuan; Xu, Yang; Hao, Fanghua] Beijing Normal Univ, Coll Water Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Zhang, Yu,Hao, Zengchao,Feng, Sifang,et al. Agricultural drought prediction in China based on drought propagation and large-scale drivers[J]. 北京师范大学,2021,255.
APA	Zhang, Yu,Hao, Zengchao,Feng, Sifang,Zhang, Xuan,Xu, Yang,&Hao, Fanghua.(2021).Agricultural drought prediction in China based on drought propagation and large-scale drivers.AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT,255.
MLA	Zhang, Yu,et al."Agricultural drought prediction in China based on drought propagation and large-scale drivers".AGRICULTURAL WATER MANAGEMENT 255(2021).