干旱区生态环境知识资源中心(Arid): A greener future for the Galapagos: forecasting ecosystem productivity by finding climate analogs in time

Arid

DOI	10.1002/ecs2.3753
	A greener future for the Galapagos: forecasting ecosystem productivity by finding climate analogs in time
	Charney, Noah D.; Bastille-Rousseau, Guillaume; Yackulic, Charles B.; Blake, Stephen; Gibbs, James P.
通讯作者	Charney, ND (corresponding author), Univ Maine, Dept Wildlife Fisheries & Conservat Biol, Orono, ME 04469 USA. ; Charney, ND (corresponding author), St Louis Zoo, WildCare Inst, 1 Govt Dr, St Louis, MO 63110 USA.
来源期刊	ECOSPHERE
ISSN	2150-8925
出版年	2021
卷号	12 期号:10
英文摘要	Forecasting ecosystem response to climate change is critical for guiding policymaking but challenging due to: complicated relationships between microclimates and regional climates; species' responses that are driven by extremes rather than averages; the multifaceted nature of species' interactions; and the lack of historical analogs to future climates. Given these challenges, even model systems such as the Galapagos Islands, a world-famous biodiversity hotspot and World Heritage Site, lack clear forecasts for future environmental change. Here, we developed a novel nonparametric method for simulating the ecosystem futures based on observed vegetation productivity (NDVI) during analogous weather observed historically. Using satellite images taken from the past to piece together a simulated future, we projected that productivity of terrestrial vegetation of the Galapagos will increase over the next century by approximately one standard deviation archipelago-wide, with largest increases during the wet season (January to June) and in the arid zones. Such greening would impact a variety of ecological and evolutionary processes, species of conservation concern, and agricultural practices. Our straightforward approach can be applied to many other regions, particularly those with rapid ecosystem responses to stochastic inter-annual climatic fluctuations that provide appropriate climate analogs for forecasting.
英文关键词	climate impacts downscaling ecosystem response Galapagos modeling Normalized Difference Vegetation Index vegetation productivity
类型	Article
语种	英语
开放获取类型	gold
收录类别	SCI-E
WOS记录号	WOS:000711630100021
WOS关键词	EL-NINO ; GIANT TORTOISES ; VEGETATION ; ISLAND ; ENSO ; CONSERVATION ; MANAGEMENT ; RESPONSES ; DYNAMICS ; EVENTS
WOS类目	Ecology
WOS研究方向	Environmental Sciences & Ecology
来源机构	United States Geological Survey
资源类型	期刊论文
条目标识符	http://119.78.100.177/qdio/handle/2XILL650/368361
作者单位	[Charney, Noah D.] Univ Maine, Dept Wildlife Fisheries & Conservat Biol, Orono, ME 04469 USA; [Charney, Noah D.] St Louis Zoo, WildCare Inst, 1 Govt Dr, St Louis, MO 63110 USA; [Bastille-Rousseau, Guillaume] Southern Illinois Univ, Cooperat Wildlife Res Lab, 1263 Lincoln Dr, Carbondale, IL 62901 USA; [Yackulic, Charles B.] US Geol Survey, Southwest Biol Sci Ctr, Flagstaff, AZ 86001 USA; [Blake, Stephen] St Louis Univ, Biol Dept, St Louis, MO 63103 USA; [Blake, Stephen] Max Planck Inst Anim Behav, Radolfzell am Bodensee, Germany; [Gibbs, James P.] SUNY Syracuse, Dept Environm Biol, Coll Environm Sci & Forestry, Syracuse, NY USA
推荐引用方式 GB/T 7714	Charney, Noah D.,Bastille-Rousseau, Guillaume,Yackulic, Charles B.,et al. A greener future for the Galapagos: forecasting ecosystem productivity by finding climate analogs in time[J]. United States Geological Survey,2021,12(10).
APA	Charney, Noah D.,Bastille-Rousseau, Guillaume,Yackulic, Charles B.,Blake, Stephen,&Gibbs, James P..(2021).A greener future for the Galapagos: forecasting ecosystem productivity by finding climate analogs in time.ECOSPHERE,12(10).
MLA	Charney, Noah D.,et al."A greener future for the Galapagos: forecasting ecosystem productivity by finding climate analogs in time".ECOSPHERE 12.10(2021).